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Hurley on Horses

JUVENILE FIRST OUT WINNERS ARE IN THE WORKS

Just about every serious bettor will tell you that, yes, they are aware that the workouts for any debuting juvenile maiden are important. But question those same bettors and they will often tell you that when it comes to betting these first time starters they look to many other factors before spending time with due diligence on workouts in general and more specifically what the patterns might indicate.

These bettors will pay attention to the trainers such as Todd Pletcher and Chard Brown, who have sterling records with juveniles. In large part this is because they get the best stock to work with.

Next in the factor column will be the jockeys. It stands to reason some success can be drawn from this as well, for at any given circuit the top percentage barn will use the top jockeys.

Another factor that plays large, even before works, is breeding. Bettors are drawn to the leading sires and such things as yearling purchase prices and stud fees.

In addition, there are bettors who are locked into the belief that the most important evidence you have is the tote board; believing as they do that a live first out runner will be backed by smart money.

These are all legitimate factors, but they also are factors which often cause bettors to support first time starters even if there are indefinite work patterns in evidence. And these top notch “connection” factors often lead to debuting juveniles being over-bet.

Given the above references, maybe it would be productive for you to also take a hard look at the workouts and a number of patterns which very often point to first out winners at a decent price.

SO HOW CAN THE WORKS HELP?

Let’s look at a trio of debuting juvenile maiden winners combined from Friday and Saturday, November 10 and 11 at Aqueduct.

A careful view of the works shows that consistency of works is crucial. You don’t necessarily need a series of bullet. Blowout works that are fast, fast, fast.

It is more important to see that these youngsters can get to the track in the…

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23
Nov

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