AFC Betting Action
DIRECT FROM NEVADA
With Oddsmaker Nick Bogdanovich
CONTINUING OUR LOOK AT NFL WIN TOTALS
The last time we were together we looked at early betting action on regular season win totals for the NFC. As promised, I'm back today to do the same thing for the AFC.
The NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS opened at 11.5 with Under juice last week. But, the acquisitions of Chad Ochocinco and Albert Haynesworth inspired betting action on the Over. The line is still 11.5, which is VERY high for a prop like this already...and the juice is now about -130 on the Over.
We've seen mixed action on the NEW YORK JETS, with the line settling right now around 10 wins. There's been skepticism from sharps for both the MIAMI DOLPHINS and BUFFALO BILLS. Miami opened at 8 wins, but is now either 8 with heavy Under juice (as high as -150 offshore) or 7.5. Buffalo is at 5.5 wins with the Under getting higher vigorish.
The biggest mistake of the early lines was on the CINCINNATI BENGALS. The Mirage put up 7.5 at first, with a little extra vig on the Over. Many sharps POUNDED the Under because they just didn't see Cincy getting to eight wins. They pounded it again at 7, and at 6.5, and still at 6! I'm seeing Cincinnati at 5.5 wins now with Over vigorish. There's always a danger when you're the first to go up with numbers that a mistake will happen. Sharps are going to find it, and race to your locale to bet it.
The PITTSBURGH STEELERS and BALTIMORE RAVENS are the obvious favorites to win the division. Pittsburgh went up at 11 wins but is now 10.5 most everywhere. Same situation for Baltimore, though there were some sharps still betting the Under at 10.5 wins for the Ravens.
Not much early interest with the CLEVELAND BROWNS, who are at 6.5 wins at the moment.
Peyton Manning's neck issues inspired some Under money on the INDIANAPOLIS COLTS. They opened at 10 wins but are now either 9.5 or 10 with Under juice. And, that's lower than normal for the Colts to begin with.
The HOUSTON TEXANS are getting some sharp support, driving an opener of 8 projected wins up to 8.5 wins. Oddsmakers and sharps see this is a fairly weak division this year. Five different"second place" teams in the eight divisions are at 9.5 or higher.
Bringing in Matt Hasselbeck inspired Over money on the TENNESSEE TITANS. They opened at 6.5 wins, but are now either 6.5 with Over juice or 7 with Under juice. There was also some support for the JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS, who opened at 6 wins but are now 6.5 with Under juice. Light support in both of those cases.
There really wasn't a lot of action in the AFC West. And, now that we've finished the cycle, it's clear that the NFC was busier than the AFC outside of the Bengals blown opener. The SAN DIEGO CHARGERS are expected to win the division with 10 victories. That's held fairly solid though I did see a 9.5 with Over juice out there. Last year's champ, the KANSAS CITY CHIEFS opened at 8 wins with Under juice. I'm still seeing either that or 7.5 wins with Over juice.
The OAKLAND RAIDERS have made some negative headlines again (nothing new there!). They've fallen from 7 projected wins to either 7 with Under juice or 6.5 with Over juice. The DENVER BRONCOS are either at 5.5 with Over juice or 6 with Under juice if you want to take a shot on Tim Tebow's team.
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Best of luck with your Regular Season Win bets in the NFL. Whatever the sport, whatever the proposition...the best information is going to come to you DIRECT FROM NEVADA!
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