More CFB Power Rating Tips
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With Oddsmaker Nick Bogdanovich
WHO SHOULD IMPROVE IN YOUR COLLEGE FOOTBALL POWER RATINGS?
The last time we were together I talked about situations in college football that would cause you to dock teams in your Preseason Power Ratings. Today, I want to follow up on that and discuss situations that would lead to increasing their rating.
COACHES IN THEIR SECOND YEAR
Often rookie head coaches go through a transition period where they have to weed out some bad apples and figure out who can produce within new schematics. That leads to an ugly first year, but a much stronger second year where the team catches the betting markets by surprise. Now, not all second year coaches show this tendency. Some guys are just in over their heads at this level, and this is the year that gets confirmed. But, I will boost Ratings a point or two for:
Second-year coaches who had good Novembers the prior year.
Second-year coaches who return experienced quarterbacks and experienced offensive lines.
Second-year coaches who earned rave reviews in recruiting. Coaches know how to recruit for their style. This shows up much more strongly in their second season than their first.
EXPERIENCED PROGRAMS ON THE MOVE
Go back to last year and look for teams who played well in the last 3-4 games of the regular season, then impressed in their bowl game. The enthusiasm from that kind of finish usually leads to great off-season workouts...and then a strong full season the following year when you have plenty of experience back.
Now, I'm not talking about teams who finished well to create "grand finale's" for their graduating class. I'm talking about teams of underclassmen who closed very well, and then have a ton of talent coming back. Programs like this may be at least 3-4 points better than the market realizes out of the gate. I'll lift them 1-3 points depending on my feel of the situation, with a notation by the team to remind me to lift them more if they start of September well.
INJURY RIDDLED TEAMS FROM 2010 WHO GOT HEALTHY
Whenever a team has a disastrous season because of injuries, bettors tend to remember the disaster but not the cause. They'll still think of that team as being bad in the new season, even if many of the key players are healthy again. Don't you make that mistake. Maybe a team that's a 70 on the scale when healthy is only a 67 when injured. Now that they're healthy again, be sure you put them at 70 starting this year rather than keeping them at the 67 they ended 2010 with.
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