MLB Betting Mistakes

With Oddsmaker Nick Bogdanovich


The All-Star Break brings us to the end of the "first half" of the Major League Baseball season. I wanted to spend some time at this juncture running through mistakes I saw bettors making in the first three months of the season.

  • There was a long reluctance to accept that we were in another great pitching year. People wanted to bet Overs. When totals started dropping down to 7, 6.5, and even 6, they doubled down figuring offenses would start to hit. That worked sometimes. But, on the whole, bettors chasing offense have been disappointed. With steroids out of the game, you have to adjust your scoring expectations downward. This has been very tough for younger bettors who's entire gambling lives were during the steroid era. Old-timers can remember back to lower scoring eras, and were able to adjust quicker.

  • Bettors were too quick to draw conclusions based on the first few weeks of results. Remember when Boston and Tampa Bay started out pretty slowly? When they got things going, too many gamblers had already decided those teams were overrated. Bettors missed out on some very good runs that made big money for teams who handicapped on overall team talent rather than what happened a week or two ago. This is something that happens in every sport. I think one of the strengths of oddsmakers is that they post their openers based on Power Ratings that reflect team talent rather than a short term sample that may be giving a bad read.

  • Bettors focused too much on starting pitching and not enough on other elements. There are still WAY too many baseball bettors who think that starting pitching is everything when trying to pick a winner. These days, many starting pitchers only last six innings anyway. That's only two-thirds of the game. And, it's not like all offenses are created equal. At the bare minimum, you have to analyze a game based on:

Starting Pitchers

Whenever I hear a "bad beat" story, it's almost always about how a bullpen blew a late lead. Hey, that happens to everybody at some point. But, if you're betting on teams with bad bullpens, you DESERVE those bad beats!

  • There was a lack of balance in portfolios. By that, I mean, some bettors ONLY bet favorites, and spend each day trying to find the best favorites. Other guys bet ONLY underdogs because they've heard that there's no value on favorites. Well, the market can make mistakes in either direction. Sometimes favorites are actually underpriced. Sometimes they're overpriced. Focus on balancing your portfolio in the coming weeks. I know guys who dug big holes for themselves quickly with too many favorites. But, I also know a lot of supposed sharps who dug holes slowly by going 2-3 every day with underdogs that kept losing close games.

  • Referring back to my articles earlier this week about all the travel around July 4th, I think far too many bettors are IGNORING the demands of travel in Major League Baseball. They're not recognizing when teams are going to be flat from jet lag. They're not recognizing when they may blow off a game because it's a getaway day and there's a plane to catch. That became the new "bad beat" story for awhile. Bettors were whining that their team was hacking rather than working counts. They'd lose 3-1 in a game that barely lasted over two hours with a dog that just wasn't focused on getting the job done. This isn't true for all 30 teams. A few though just go through the motions on getaway days. You need to discover who they are and stop losing money with them!

I hope everyone enjoys the All-Star Break. I have a big Sunday planned for my clients as we wrap up the first half. And, I'm excited about Tuesday Night's big game because I think the market has mispriced expectations based on my early discussions with other oddsmakers and sharps. You can always purchase my BEST BETS here at the website with your credit card. I've got great rates for the rest of the season as well. If you have any questions, call my handicapping office at 1-877-822-2276.

I know why bettors win. I know why bettors lose. That's why the best information about the betting markets will always come to you DIRECT FROM NEVADA!


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