Sharps Stunned by Dallas Comeback

With Oddsmaker Nick Bogdanovich


Most of you watched the dramatic Dallas comeback in Game Two of the NBA Finals Thursday Night in the comfort of your own home. That know how you were know how the Miami crowd was reacting on TV...and you saw the shots of Dallas fans reacting in their home arena as they were watching on the scoreboard.

None of that reflected the atmosphere that I experienced watching in a Nevada sportsbook.

With seven minutes to go, and Miami leading by 15 points, sportsbooks all over Las Vegas and Reno looked like this:

  • Squares (our word for the general public) were as high as a kite. Squares love betting favorites. They liked what they saw from Miami in Game One. Now, a dominating performance was making them feel like kings of the world. It's amazing how cocky squares get when things are going well. You'd have think they'd have dunked a few themselves.
  • Sharps (professional wagerers) were kind of split on this game. Some were taking Dallas in the traditional bounce back spot after a Game One loss. Others just don't trust LeBron, and bet on Dallas for that reason. But, a good number of personnel-analyst types had backed Miami because they seemed to be the clearly superior side and were playing on a strong home court. What's funny is that BOTH of these groups had decided the game was over. Dallas money had thrown in the towel (some guys left and didn't see the finish!). Miami guys were in a jovial mood.

There was NOBODY thinking Dallas was about to come back. It just didn't seem possible.

A few minutes later, it was very possible. Miami backers had turned as white as the shirts the arena fans were wearing. They couldn't believe they might blow their cover at -4.5. Losing the game didn't seem possible. But, not covering the spread was very much in play.

Then losing the game outright was very much in play!

And, in the final minute...many bettors turned into sports fans admiring an amazing finish. Dirk Nowitzki hits a three and the place goes nuts. What a comeback! Chalmers hits a three to tie it and suddenly EVERY Miami bettor is dreaming of overtime and a chance to cover in the extra period (which has already happened twice for heat backers). And, every Dallas backer is thinking all of this was just a set-up to get heartbroken in overtime.

Nowitzki hits the go-ahead bucket...and the game ends moments later. The series is even and heading back to Dallas. Everyone's spent. The buzz in the building lingered for quite some time. It picked up again the next morning as everyone was saying"Can you believe that game last night?"

Dallas is currently a 3-point favorite at home in Game Three. Miami is currently a -135 or -140 favorite to win the series even after suffering that heartbreaking collapse. You may think it's odd for Miami to be favored in the series when Dallas will be favored in the next three games. Should the current lines hold...

Game Three: Dallas by 3
Game Four: Dallas by 3
Game Five: Dallas by 3
Game Six: Miami by 4.5
Game Seven: Miami by 4.5

That's Dallas winning three times, and Miami two. Why is Miami the favorite?

Those lines probably won't hold. Should Dallas win Game Three, then the line would scoot very close to pick-em in Game Four, and possibly Game Five. Tough to win two or three coin flips in a row. If Miami wins Game Three, they'll have taken home court advantage back and justified the series price. Also, we might see the Miami lines go up at home if it gets there because home court has played such a big role in series finales.

I still have Miami one point better in my estimate of market ratings. It would have moved to two points better had the game ended after 42 minutes instead of 48 back on Thursday.

I'm very much looking forward to these next three games in Dallas (all of which will be necessary). Experience and access to the markets really help a lot in this situation. I've been dealing with the 2-3-2 format my whole life in the NBA Finals. I know the best way to bet. I know what other bettors to respect. I know how to maximize line value based on what the public is doing.

You can enjoy the benefits of having"a friend behind the line" by signing up for my service. We still have at least three games to go. My BEST BETS can be purchased individually on game day, or in a discounted package. If you have any questions, call my handicapping office at 1-877-822-2276. Be sure to check on baseball and early bird football rates when you call.

Let's win some money Saturday in the bases and Sunday in both basketball and baseball. Every day...every weekend...every sport...and whenever history is being made...the best information is always going to come to you DIRECT FROM NEVADA!


Today’s Hot Plays