NBA Dogs & Unders

With Oddsmaker Nick Bogdanovich


Through the second weekend of NBA playoff action, two very clear trends had developed:

*DOGS were getting all the cash because inflated lines were taking forever to come down to match the new parity in the league.

*UNDERS were scoring consistently because so many teams with supposedly good offenses couldn't score enough points against playoff style defensive intensity.

There's still plenty of time for that to change. But, it's not like any bad defenses are waiting in the later rounds. It's the teams we're watching now who are going to keep playing the rest of the way. If the lines don't drop dropping, the Dog and Under tendency could hold up all the way through the Finals. Handicappers need to watch this development closely to determine value all along the way. Hey, it's possible the market eventually overreacts with a lot of games at pick-em and 174 or something in a way that turns the flow the other way.

Here's a series-by-series breakdown through Sunday Night's action (the first nine days of the playoffs).

The dog is 3-0-1 ATS. Totals are 1-3 to the Under. So, the Dog and Under combination was 6-1-1 in the first four games of the series. And, many were these lines way off! The last two totals won by double digits. Indiana got the money in their covers by 7, 5, and 9 points. Chicago was very overrated to start this series.

The dog is 2-2 ATS. Totals are 1-3 to the Under. A rare series where the favorite covered a couple of games. I had Philadelphia (+) for my clients on Sunday, and we won the game outright with an 11-point cover. I knew Doug Collins wasn't going to let his team lay down. Two of the games in this series have stayed Under by 23 and 20 points.

The dog is 3-1 ATS. Totals are 1-3 to the Under. New York covered the first two games as a dog on the road. Once injuries took their toll on the Knicks, Boston had switched to being the dog in Game Three! So, Dogs and Unders are 6-2 in this series, and 17-6-1 just in these first three series.

The dog is 4-0 ATS. Totals are 1-3 to the Under. Oddsmakers and sharps should be embarrassed about how slow they've reacted here. I had these teams closer together in my personal ratings than the market did (which we discussed in those market rating articles). In the Eastern Conference, the simple strategy of backings Dogs and Unders is 24-7-1 in the first 32 games. That should be impossible. But...the lines were stacked against favorites on the assumption that the public would step in and bet them. Sharps were afraid of teams like Indiana and Atlanta because they didn't look very competitive down the stretch. Let's see if there are more surprises over in the West.

The dog is now 3-1 ATS and straight up in this series. Totals are 2-2. This has been a much different series than the market had expected. Obviously a #8 seed rarely jumps out to a 3-1 series lead over a #1 seed! Totals in Games 2 & 3 missed the mark by 13 and 12 points. We're at 27-9-1 for the Dog and Under combo now. Unders by themselves are 15-5

The dog is 3-1 ATS. Totals are 2-2. Wow, our first series that hasn't gone to the Under! I did have the Under in Game Four for a winner for my clients. Two of the first three had topped the Vegas total...rare for the first week. The running record is now 31-11-1 for Dogs and Unders.

The dog was 1-2-1 ATS heading into Monday, as Dallas covered the first two games at home as a favorite. Totals are 2-2. This is the only series that's broken the mold to this point. With one series to go, we're at 34-15-2 for Dogs and Unders.

The dog was 2-1 ATS heading into Monday. Totals were 1-2 to the Under. That brings us to a 38-17-2 mark for the Dog and Under combo through the first two weekends of playoff action.

That's 69%!

Hopefully you've been shading your action in that direction thus far. Anything else would be swimming against a very strong tide.

As I said, I do expect an adjustment this week and the rest of the way. It's very clear now that teams are more evenly matched that anticipated. And, we're seeing 'late round' basketball being played in the first round this year in terms of slow paces and defensive intensity. The team side lines and totals HAVE to drop. The key to picking winners from this point forward is monitoring those adjustments until the lines are where they need to be. Maybe they won't get there. Maybe they'll overshoot the mark.

The secret to my success as an oddsmaker, big bettor, and handicapper is that I know how to turn 'maybe' into 'probably.'I can't win every big play. Nobody does. But, I win a lot more than I lose. I put the odds in the favor of my employer Cal Neva and my handicapping clients. You can enjoy the benefits of my unique position in the legal betting markets by signing up for service. Game day BEST BETS can be purchased online with your credit card. My full playoff package is value priced. If you have any questions, call my office at 1-800-323-4453.

We won big in the baskets (and the bases too!) this past Sunday. You owe it to yourself to find out EVERY DAY why the best information comes DIRECT FROM NEVADA!

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