MLB Money Makers/Money Burners
DIRECT FROM NEVADA
With Oddsmaker Nick Bogdanovich
THE BEST AND WORST SO FAR VS. THE LINE IN MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL
We haven't had a chance to check in on Major League baseball the past several days. Let's take care of that right now. You've already got updated market ratings in the NBA based on may last article. I'll talk about the NBA some more when it's time to go over what the sharps are thinking about Round two matchups. That gives us this window of opportunity to check in on the money makers and money burners so far on the diamonds.
MONEY MAKERS (through Friday's games)
Cleveland: +9 units
Kansas City: +6 units
Texas: +5 units
Florida: +5 units
LA Angels: +4 units
Colorado: +4 units
Philadelphia: +4 units
It's not uncommon for the biggest profit teams early in the season to be projected doormats who got hot early. We see that at the top with both Cleveland and Kansas City. They were supposed to be way off the pace in the AL Central. Instead, they're playing hard every day while so many other franchises didn't seem to get their April wake-up calls.
I warn people about this every year, but too many forget. Early season baseball lines are based on last year's perceptions. A lot of teams don't come out of the gate in April playing to last year's perceptions. Bad teams made changes, or matured in the offseason. Good teams know they're in for a six month grind and aren't motivated to be the champions of April.
Florida is another team above that wasn't supposed to be a contender but is showing good early results. Credit to Texas and Philadelphia...World Series contenders...for coming out strong. It's tougher to make 4-5 units this early for the projected contenders because expectations are so high to begin with.
The Angels and Rockies are the kind of teams who will make you money in their best years, but will have lapses every so often that you have to be careful with. I like the way both of them play baseball...and I'll be looking for spots to back them until they give me reasons not too.
MONEY BURNERS (through Friday's games)
Boston: -8 units
Chicago White Sox: -6 units
NY Mets: -6 units
Minnesota: -5 units
Seattle: -5 units
Atlanta: -5 units
Houston -5 units
The general theme for early season money burners are:
- Projected contenders who start the season poorly.
- Bad teams who are so bad that they lose money even when everyone knows they're bad!
That's what you see above. Boston was tabbed as the best team in baseball by the media and the legal betting markets. They had more projected regular season wins than anyone else at the start of the season. They had a disastrous for two weeks, but have rebounded a bit since then. Minnesota and the Chicago White Sox were supposed to battle for AL Central crown. They're battling in the cellar now...but we're only 20 games into a 162-game season. Atlanta was a popular Wildcard pick behind Philadelphia after making the playoffs last year. They've been a big disappointment.
With the NY Mets, Seattle, and Houston...you basically have bad teams who were expected to be bad. All are in last place in their respective divisions.
I think it's important for handicappers and Vegas bettors to keep tabs on the money makers and money burners all season. It's very easy to lose site of that the TEAMS are doing when you're focused so much on the day-to-day pitchers. Maybe the pitchers on these surprise teams don't impress you, so you end up passing on a team that's ON FIRE for a few weeks. Or, you pass up opportunities to fade bad teams because you think the lines are too expensive to go against them. Well, if a team hardly ever wins...you can actually make money that way if you pick your spots well.
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