MLB Win Totals

With Oddsmaker Nick Bogdanovich


The 2011 Major League Baseball season is already here. Time to run the Regular Season Win Totals that sharps have been betting in the days leading up to first pitch.

I’ll run through them all division-by-division for you. I’ve gathered what are basically consensus numbers that I’ve seen in Nevada and offshore. If you see a number like 83-83.5, that means that both are available, but you generally have to pay extra juice on one end or the other (you’d have to lay -120 or -130 on Over 83, or those prices on Under 83.5).

The public generally doesn’t bet these because they don’t like having their money sit in Vegas coffers for seven months waiting to see if they won their bet. Sharps don’t like that either, but they have deep enough pockets to invest that way when they think they have a significant edge.

History has shown that Regular Season Win Totals in all sports have more predictive value than any computer metric, or set of pundit predictions. So, consider today’s report an outline on “best expectations” for the coming season. There will be a few surprises of course. There always are. But, the numbers you’re about to read are likely to be closer to what eventually happens than any other prediction system.

Boston 95
NY Yankees 91
Tampa Bay 84
Toronto 76.5
Baltimore 76.5

Boston made some noise in the offseason with big name acquisitions. The market has them taking control of the most powerful division in baseball. Tampa Bay is projected to fall way back to earth, barely sneaking past the .500 mark. The race amongst those two and the always strong New York Yankees will once again be one of the most compelling elements of the new season.

Chicago White Sox 85-85.5
Minnesota 85
Detroit 84.5
Cleveland 71.5-72
Kansas City 68.5-69

This is shaping up as quite a race. Once again it’s hard to tell Minnesota, Detroit, and CWS apart on paper. All are capable of winning the division. All are capable of fading back below the .500 mark. Chicago sports teams often get more respect in the Vegas line than they deserve. Maybe that’s at the heart of why the Sox have moved to the top of the list this year. Or, maybe they really are that good! This should be a good race again. But, it’s hard to see the eventual winner here being as good as the eventual winner of the AL East.

Texas 86.5-87
Oakland 83.5-84
LA Angels 83-83.5
Seattle 70

Texas was a surprise champion last year, both in this division and the whole American League. Surprises often fall back to earth with a thud. But, there is a swagger about this team, and more pitching depth than is realized because they play at home in a hitter’s park. Some believe Texas won the West by default last year. If Oakland and LAA haven’t taken any steps forward, the same thing could happen again.

Philadelphia 95.5-96
Atlanta 88-88.5
Florida 82-82.5
NY Mets 76.5-77
Washington 72.5

Philadelphia has put together one of the most dominating starting rotations the sport has ever seen. If those veteran arms stay healthy, it’s hard to see anyone competing with the Phils over the long haul. That being said, pitching is fickle! Look how far the Mets have fallen. Their financial woes have cast a pall over the whole franchise.

Cincinnati 86-86.5
Milwaukee 85.5-86
St. Louis 84-84.5
Chicago Cubs 82-82.5
Houston 72
Pittsburgh 66.5-67

This could be one of the most exciting races we’ve seen in years. If the Cubs can finally get their heads on straight, there are FOUR legitimate contenders in this division. Cincinnati snuck through last year, but didn’t seem very dominant in the process. Handicappers who can get an early read on real strength will be able to profit all season long.

San Francisco 88
Colorado 87
LA Dodgers 83.5-84
San Diego 75-75.5
Arizona 72.5-73

You may have noticed how few teams are projecting to 90 wins or more. Baseball has become a sport of parity even with the big market/small market dichotomy. Most of the divisions are evenly matched…and division-heavy schedules make it hard to reach 90-95 wins.

Those of you who are with me all the time know that college basketball is my favorite sport for handicapping, oddsmaking, and betting. Baseball is right up there because there are so many games per day…and the season lasts so long. If you have an edge, you can milk it for a very big profit before the market finally catches up.

You can sign up for my full baseball season online with your credit card. Or, try out a few days here earlier in the season to test the waters. Selections go up a few hours before first pitch. Note there are a lot of day games early in the season, so take care of business early. If you have any questions, call my office at 1-877-822-2276.

Back Saturday morning to tell you what the sharps are thinking about the Final Four games in the Big Dance. Whether it’s baseball, college hoops, or the NBA, the best information is always going to come to you DIRECT FROM NEVADA!


This article is part of the VSM MASTERS SERIES presented by For more information on NICK BOGDANOVICH’S handicapping packages, call 1-877-822-2276.


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