Confused Bettors Lose!

With Oddsmaker Nick Bogdanovich


Usually, when squares lose (the general public), you see a very confident bettor before the game (because squares always think they've got things figured out), then a shocked face through the game when they see the favorite playing much worse than they had expected.

That's what squares do. They convince themselves the favorite is invincible, then they lose a lot more bets than they win because:

  • Favorites aren't as good as everyone thinks
  • The Vegas lines are stacked against them!

This year, it's been different through March Madness...particularly the past few days in Sweet 16 betting. It's like the vast majority of squares are lost in the woods. They want to bet, but they don't know who to bet. They have fear in their eyes when they approach the counter. They don't have confidence during the game. They're kind of resigned to losing because they can't get their bearings.

What happened?

  • The media was so far out of touch with real basketball this year that squares were slapped in the face in the early rounds. The Big East wasn't that great. The best teams in the Big East were much worse than ESPN, CBS, and all the Big East coaches being interviewed on an endless loop had led everyone to believe. The ACC wasn't all that great either. When both Duke and North Carolina won but didn't cover last Sunday, squares weren't sure what to do in the Sweet 16.
  • The public relied too much on the media for guidance because they didn't bet much college basketball from the end of football until the beginning of the tournament. You probably know this yourself. If you're betting a sport, you're REALLY into that sport. If you take time off, you lose track of all the details you need to follow to pick winners. Handicappers and bettors who do their own work know not to listen to TV pundits! Those who took six weeks off have no other way to get caught up then to listen to TV pundits. The guys who picked Pittsburgh and Duke to win the championship. The guys who said Notre Dame, Louisville, Syracuse, St. John's,  Texas (6 of 14 experts on ESPN's website picked Texas to reach the Final Four!), Kansas State, Purdue, and Wisconsin all had legitimate shots to make it to the final weekend.
  • Many games had untrustworthy favorites and appealing underdogs. Squares want to bet favorites. They also want to bet on Jimmer Fredette of BYU because he's a media darling. What should they do when BYU is a dog against Gonzaga and Florida? Squares have learned to respect Butler (learned by losing so many bets against them!). They all think Butler will play horribly as soon as they pull the trigger on them. Thursday saw squares afraid to bet Wisconsin, and afraid to bet Butler...while they were desperate for action in the Wisconsin-Butler game!

Confused bettors lose. They make bad decisions. They fall back on gambler's fallacies rather than analysis ("hey, I'd due to win a game, I'd better press up"). They bet games they should pass. They bet four units when they should bet one.

If I'm describing YOU (and, I know I'm describing many of you), see if you can play it smarter this weekend in the Elite 8 games, and down the stretch in the NBA as you start to get involved in that sport in time for the playoffs. Turn down the volume. Do your own thinking, and your own analysis. If you're not capable of this, DON'T BET! Or, sign up with the man who lives smack dab in the middle of the legal betting markets.

My work as Head Oddsmaker and Sportsbook Director at Cal-Neva allows me to see EVERYTHING going on behind the line. I know what the sharps (professional wagerers) are doing. I know what the numbers"should" opposed to what they are. This month in particular the numbers are posted to reflect media hype rather than reality. Aren't you better off with reality?!

My game day BEST BETS go up a few hours before first tip. You can purchase them online with your credit card. I've got great rates for the rest of basketball. If you have any questions, call my handicapping office at 1-877-822-2276 and one of my representatives will be able to assist you.

I'm afraid you've learned again this year that the worst information comes to you from your TV screen. The best information will always come to you DIRECT FROM NEVADA!


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