What Sharps Think About Sweet 16
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With Oddsmaker Nick Bogdanovich
WHAT SHARPS ARE THINKING ABOUT
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY'S SWEET 16 MATCHUPS
Time to look at what sharps (professional wagerers in Nevada) are thinking about this week's Sweet 16 matchups. I'll the games in order by site.
THURSDAY'S GAMES IN NEW ORLEANS
BYU VS. FLORIDA: Sharps really liked the Over here at the opening total of 146.5. I'm seeing all the way up to 149 as I write this. They're expecting a lot of pace, and they see both teams scoring well against the other team's defenses based on the personnel matchups. There was slight support for Florida at -2.5, as it's up to -3. The public may come in on Jimmer Fredette in the afternoon before tipoff. But, sharps who liked Florida didn't want to take the chance that they wouldn't and stepped in early.
BUTLER VS. WISCONSIN: Not much interest in the openers. Wisconsin went from -4.5 to -5, but nothing more. The total opened at 123.5 and went to 124. This Butler team isn't as good as last year, and hasn't yet caught the fancy of sharps with any sort of passion. The totals guys I know want to see what the first game looks like in the Super Dome in terms of three-point accuracy and tightness of the rims. Both of these teams shoot a lot of three's. The game probably won't have much tempo...so shooting accuracy from a distance means everything on the total.
THURSDAY'S GAMES IN ANAHEIM
CONNECTICUT VS. SAN DIEGO STATE: The biggest early move here was on the total. Over 128.5 and 129 was bet, and we're now seeing 130 in most places. San Diego State opened as a 1-point favorite, but was bet down to pick-em. Some painful memories for sharps with these two teams. Most everyone had Temple (+) vs. SDSU in the last round, and got hosed in double overtime. So, they were right in going against SDSU but lost anyway. A lot of sharps really loaded up against UCONN in their opener vs. Bucknell and got blasted. I'm sensing more support for UCONN in my discussions with sharps. But, it's far from unanimous.
ARIZONA VS. DUKE: Sharps were surprised to see an opener of +9 for Arizona, and stepped in right away. I'm now seeing +8.5. Sharps know that the public prefers favorites, and the public likes betting Duke. So, that's actually a meaningful early move. They liked Arizona so much they didn't want to risk the public getting scared off a high number. If the public does come in on game day on Duke -8.5, there will be more sharps ready to take Arizona at +9. Sharps aren't impressed with the ACC powers, who are 1-3 ATS so far in the Dance and barely won last Sunday in Greensboro.
FRIDAY'S GAMES IN NEWARK
MARQUETTE VS. NORTH CAROLINA: Same story here, as sharp money came in on a dog right away against an ACC favorite that might have been bet up later by the public. Sharps didn't want to wait because +5 struck them as a vulnerable number. I'm now seeing Marquette +4.5 everywhere. Big move on the total, which has shot up from 147 to 149.5. Sharps generally like Overs with up tempo teams in NBA arenas. This game is being played on the Nets home court, and North Carolina really likes to run.
KENTUCKY VS. OHIO STATE: Some sentiment for the Over here too, as an opener of 139 is up to 140. The team side line hasn't moved yet with Ohio State still at -5.5. As we talked about a lot during football, a frozen line like this often means the sharps like the dog, and are waiting for something better. If they liked the favorite, they would have bet the favorite before the public jumped in on the overall #1 seed in the tourney who looked so great in a TV game that got big ratings. That didn't happen, so sharps don't like the favorite. They'd like to see a +6 before committing to Kentucky.
FRIDAY'S GAMES IN SAN ANTONIO
RICHMOND VS. KANSAS: Not much betting interest in either game in Texas. A reminder here that the San Antonio games are in the Alamo Dome rather than the Spurs normal home court. It's a converted football stadium. Sharps generally like Unders unless great shooters are on the floor. This total has dropped from 138 to 137.5, possibly as a result of that line of thinking. No interest in either team yet at Kansas -10.5. Perhaps this is another frozen line where sharps would hit the dog at +11. Sharps always look for edges all over the regular season board. But, they really didn't spend much time this year with either Richmond or Virginia Commonwealth. They may prefer to pass the Texas games and focus on teams they know better.
VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH VS. FLORIDA STATE: The total here has dropped from 133 to 132. Nothing happening on the team side, with Florida State still sitting at -3.5. We at least know sharps don't like the favorite. You get a sense of what those half points on Florida and Wisconsin mean now in the early set. Those were the only favorites that got support! A half point for a favorite seems huge now that we've run through all eight games.
I have my own opinions in Thursday and Friday action. Sometimes I agree with the sharps. Sometimes I go the other way with success. Sometimes with the totals I come back the other direction if I think the line has moved too far. The only way to get my personal BEST BETS is to purchase them here at the website. You can do that on game day with your credit card a few hours before first tip. Or sign up for the rest of the postseason and enjoy big savings.
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