Oddsmakers Fighting a Whirlpool

With Oddsmaker Nick Bogdanovich


Oddsmakers are happiest when teams are consistent. That makes it very easy to post pointspreads on a game. Oddsmakers get a horrible feeling in the pit of their stomachs when late season changes threaten to disrupt their Power Ratings. If previously strong teams start to struggle, they can pull oddsmakers right down with them.

Some recent examples:

  • BYU was on top of the world after beating San Diego State on national TV last Saturday. Jimmer Fredette didn't play well, but everyone else did. Some were talking about a possible #1 seed in the Big Dance. Then, a key player was kicked off the team for a code violation, and NOBODY knows for sure how far the Cougars will fall.

They sure looked awful in their first game after the announcement. BYU opened at -12, then settled at -10.5 in what turned out to be an 82-64 loss at home to New Mexico. Oddsmakers missed the mark by 30 points!

Where is BYU in the big picture now? Oddsmakers are afraid sharps (professional wagerers) will figure it out before they will.

  • TEXAS looked like the #1 team in the country a few weeks ago. Their road win at Kansas is still one of the most impressive games any team has played this year. Oddsmakers started pricing them with respect just when the wheels started to come off!

Texas lost at Nebraska. Then they lost at Colorado. Then, this past Monday Night, they lost at home to Kansas State. The Horns are another team once in the discussions for a #1 seed that is now playing more like a #4 or #5. Last year's teams faded badly. Oddsmakers thought this year's team had learned from that debacle. Maybe not!

  • Before you watched Kansas State beat Texas on Big Monday this week, you watched VILLANOVA get crushed by Notre Dame. Villanova was once very highly regarded in the national rankings. They currently tied for NINTH PLACE in the Big East! The Wildcats are 1-10 ATS their last 11 games. Oddsmakers are nowhere near properly capturing this team in the numbers based on recent results.
  • WASHINGTON is a team oddsmakers thought they had figured out. They played great at home, but lousy on the road much of the season. Then, Washington covered both games in Arizona, but came home and lost outright to Washington State by 11 as a 12-point favorite. That was a 23-point miss!

I could go on and on. You get my point. Every part of the country has a team or two who looked like they were going to be something special, but are now caught up in a whirlpool of trouble at the worst possible time. Teams are supposed to build toward the tournaments, not sink to the bottom before they get there!

Oh, for every team that's falling back, there's a new team like St. John's (or even Kansas State) that's been lifting their level of play recently and rising up in the Power Ratings. 

As you regular readers know by now...whenever oddsmakers start to lack confidence, YOU need to gain confidence! These and so many other recent developments in college basketball make it clear that this is a player's market right now. Oddsmakers aren't comfortably aiming at targets that are standing still. They're chasing targets all over the landscape with little certainty about which direction they'll head next.

Thanks to my years of experience in all elements of legal sports betting, I'm not nearly as concerned as my cohorts are. I think I've got a very good read on teams right now. I watch a lot of games. I'm not afraid to make the changes in my personal Power Ratings that need to be changed. I'm not afraid to stick my neck out with a big bet or customer release when I'm confident the market is mistaken.

You can purchase my BEST BETS here at the website with your credit card. Daily selections go up a few hours before first tip. I've got great rates that take you all the way through March Madness. If you have any questions, call my handicapping office at 1-877-822-2276.

Among the games I'll be watching closely this weekend:

FRIDAY: Tournament action in the Colonial, Missouri Valley, Horizon, and West Coast Conferences.

SATURDAY: Duke at North Carolina, Villanova at Pittsburgh, Texas at Baylor, Notre Dame at Connecticut, Louisville at West Virginia, Kansas at Missouri, Michigan State at Michigan, Florida at Vanderbilt, and more from the tournaments.

SUNDAY: Wisconsin at Ohio State, Kentucky at Tennessee, and potential conference championship previews in the NBA with Chicago-Miami and Lakers-San Antonio.

It pays to have a friend in Las Vegas during the month of March. Let me prove do you every day why the best information comes DIRECT FROM NEVADA!


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