Heat Have Been Streaky ATS

With Oddsmaker Nick Bogdanovich


If I told you that the Miami Heat were 27-25-1 against the spread this year, heading into Sunday's huge game with Boston on ABC, you'd probably think oddsmakers had done a very good job evaluating the team.

Ironically, that's not the case at all. Miami has blown very hot and cold this year in a way that happens to be sitting near .500 ATS for the year at this moment. Let's review.

  • Miami went 4-1 ATS to start the season, including straight up victories of 26, 23, and 32 points over Orlando, New Jersey, and Minnesota. Oddsmakers had feared something like this coming into the season...victory margins that would be WAY over past norms for a newly created superteam.
  • Miami then ran into a wall in a way that nobody in the sport could believe. It's easy to forget now, But the Heat had a stretch where they were 1-12 ATS. From 4-1 to 5-16 ATS! Oddsmakers kept assuming they'd get things back on track. Bettors did the same thing. So, the number never matched the reality of the worst of times.
  • Late in that dark spell, LeBron James led a players' only meeting in Dallas. That got everyone back on the same page, and inspired a turnaround that had the Heat looking like championship contenders again. A stunning 8-0 ATS streak led to a 15-6 pointspread surge over the next 21 games. So, that's 4-1...followed by 1-12...followed by 15-6 to a point in a season where something new happened. INJURIES!
  • LeBron James got hurt on the road against the LA Clippers and missed a few games. Dwyane Wade had a few ailments, including migraine headaches that had him wearing tinted goggles in New York. Chris Bosh missed some time. Miami went 1-5-1 ATS while dealing with a shorthanded roster.
  • When they got healthy, Miami went back to crushing people! Friday Night's 106-92 win in Detroit made it 6-1 ATS since the Heat got healthy again.

So, 27-25-1 may look like the oddsmakers and the market had this team pegged exactly. With the vigorish, that's almost exactly break even. But, in reality, everyone has been chasing the ebb and flow from behind in a way that's caused price reactions to move very slowly once the dynamic has changed.

If Miami has injuries, the market overrates them fairly significantly. If Miami is healthy, they've been fantastic ever since that closed door meeting in Dallas.

That's what makes Sunday's Miami/Boston game so interesting to me. There's a good chance this will be the Eastern Conference Finals matchup. We get to see Miami at its best playing on the road against a veteran team that's won the East two of the last three years. For handicappers, bettors, and oddsmakers, it's an important game to watch because it will affect your thinking from this point forward.

Miami will also play Indiana and Toronto before the All-Star Break. Those games may not teach us much because they're coming after Boston and before an extended vacation. Miami doesn't play another "important"game until Thursday February 24th in Chicago, in another possible playoff preview. Games with Orlando, San Antonio, and the Lakers will follow in the first 10 days of March. I think what we learn in the Miami/Boston game will be meaningful for those encounters.

I think it's important for you to realize that every game is a winning opportunity AND an educational opportunity that will help you pick even more winners down the road.

As an oddsmakers, big bettor, and professional handicapper, I spend my days evaluating the teams, evaluating the market, studying the sharps (professional wagerers), studying the squares (the public) to see what mistakes their making. My unique position in the center of the legal betting markets allows me to give my clients the single best plays on the board every day. We won't win them all. We'll win a lot more than we lose.

You can purchase my BEST BETS with your credit card here at the website. Game day releases go up a few hours before first tip (which is early on Saturdays and Sundays!). I've got great rates for the full season that offer the best overall value. If you have any questions, call the office at 1-877-822-2276.

Will the Miami Heat be the best team in the NBA when the season is in the books? I can't tell you whether the best team will come from the East or the West. But, I can tell you where the best information comes from. The best information will ALWAYS come to you DIRECT FROM NEVADA!


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