Best and Worst ATS in College Hoops
DIRECT FROM NEVADA
With Oddsmaker Nick Bogdanovich
BACK TO BASKETS: BEST AND WORST SO FAR VS. COLLEGE SPREADS
We've spent a lot of time recently with college and pro football because of the busy bowl schedule and the stretch run for the playoffs. I'll be jumping back to football in my next two articles...looking at what sharps are thinking about Wildcard Weekend in my Friday report, then what sharps are thinking about the BCS Championship game matching Auburn and Oregon in my Sunday report. That means...we need to squeeze in a college hoops update!
This seemed like a great time to run through the best and worst performance so far against Las Vegas expectations. I have to tell you that oddsmakers and sportsbooks have become very skittish in this sport of late. Many stores don't post Over/Unders except in the big TV games because sharps basically mastered their formulas. If the public isn't going to bet those propositions, sportsbooks just can't profit from them. Stores have also been careful about taking too much action from respected sharps on team sides. I think much of the fear will dissipate by the time March Madness rolls around. Right now, sportsbooks are being very careful.
When we run through the best and worst records, you'll see why! Prices have been very slow to react to several developing stories around the country. Let's start with the success stories. The teams below have covered at least 75% of their games so far against a volume of board numbers (I'm excluding teams who haven't been on the board much because it's easier to post a good percentage if you've schedule light in the first two months).
BEST ATS RECORDS (thru Monday)
That's only eight teams, which probably doesn't strike you as dramatic. It isn't. The drama is still to come! Note that the success stories are relatively spread out. A few different conferences are involved. We go from way East to as far West as you can get with Hawaii. We go North to South from Buffalo to Rice down in Houston. Note that we don't see any superpowers, or very many teams from the power conferences. I warned you earlier that it's tough to make money betting the big name teams. They have high spreads nightly, and have to play perfectly to get the money. You're better off searching for hidden gems like the teams above.
Now, check out all the horror stories. Oddsmakers have done a very poor job in my view of adjusting to how bad all of the teams below have been playing this year...
WORST ATS RECORDS (thru Monday)
San Diego 1-11
Miami of Ohio 2-10
Arizona State 2-9
Mississippi State 1-9
Saint Louis 1-8
George Washington 2-8
Texas Tech 2-8
William & Mary 2-7
Youngstown State 2-7
Central Michigan 3-9
Western Kentucky 3-9
Illinois State 3-8
That sure isn't a sweet 16. That's a group that started out badly, and just kept playing badly in terms of expectations. Again, there's representation from all over the country. How can a team go 1-11 against the spread without the lines adjusting?! All the great press for San Diego State of the Mountain West Conference may have led to a media black hole for San Diego of the West Coast Conference. Nobody, including sharps and oddsmakers, have fully grasped the problems with that team right now.
Once again, we have very few teams from the power conferences. Just a few. Oddsmakers know most of the betting interest from the public will be in the major conferences that are on TV all the time. They do their best to have their Power Ratings in those leagues pegged. The Atlantic 10...the MAC...the Sun Belt...some of those teams are going to slip through the cracks.
If you're like most bettors, you're only NOW starting to pay attention to college basketball. And, maybe you're even going to wait until next week once all the bowls and Auburn/Oregon have come to an end. LOOK AT WHAT YOU MISSED! There was gold in them there hills if you were willing to do the work and dig for it. Luckily for you, the vein is still flush. I'm going to make a lot of money for my clients in college basketball starting Wednesday Night...and continuing all the way through March Madness.
You can sign up for my basketball right here online. Or, try out a few days to get the hang of things. Game day releases go up a few hours before first tip every day. Wednesday's schedule is huge. Thursday has some big games too...including some of the Western conferences I pay particular attention to because I'm based in Nevada. You can build your bankroll for WILDCARD WEEKEND with football bowls AND tons of basketball!
If you have any questions, call the office at 1-877-822-2276. One of my representatives will be happy to get you set up.
I'm honored so many of you have been with me all through the football. Just remember that the best information comes DIRECT FROM NEVADA in college basketball too!
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