Sharp Influence Strong in College Hoops
SHARPS MAKING THEIR PRESENCE FELT EARLY AND OFTEN IN COLLEGE HOOPS
I had originally planned on talking about college football today. But, so much is going on this week in college basketball that I wanted to re-visit some key themes in college hoops that are vital for smart bettors to understand if they want to think like a sharp and bet like a sharp.
*Early season lines are SOFT!
*Sharps are TELLING YOU who they like and don't like this year with early action that's moving the lines in dramatic fashion.
I warned you about this ahead of time. Now, you're seeing my words come to life on a daily, heck...on an hourly basis!
I know many of you are more into college football. And, I'll have some very big plays myself Thursday through Saturday in that sport. But...you have to admit...the football lines aren't moving as much as in college hoops because oddsmakers have such a good read on teams. Plus, any sense you get from sharps will be situational rather than team quality.
Sharps will bet college football right now based on injury news, a letdown or lookahead spot that could trigger a blowout, or maybe a statistical change for a team that brought in a new quarterback in the last few weeks and has seen a dramatic change in fortune. There aren't many games where there's disagreement between oddsmakers and sharps about how good teams are in general, or where prices should be in a general sense.
In college basketball this week, there are games where sharps are convinced oddsmakers have the wrong team favored. There are games where a 7-point favorite should be only 3-4...or maybe 10-11 in the other direction. Totals? Many sportsbooks are so afraid of sharp totals action that they're not even putting up numbers except in TV games.
Hopefully you're monitoring line moves and seeing this for yourself. You're seeing that sharps are being AGGRESSIVE right now because it's a bettor's market. You're seeing that oddsmakers are on the DEFENSIVE because they just not as well-informed as a general rule compared to the best bettors. There's no square money coming in to offset the sharps because squares rarely bet early season college hoops.
And, maybe most importantly, you're being taught by sharps who the 'take' and 'fade' teams are out of the gate. Most teams are seeing their first board action of the year this week. There's no better time than NOW for divining what sharps are thinking in college hoops. They'd love to keep everything as secret to protect their edge. But, betting lets the cat out of the bag. Since sportsbooks are moving so quickly on respected money, there's a lot of transparency for those who have their eyes focused on the board.
There are maybe 5-6 games this Saturday in college football (if that many) that will get universally strong sharp support. And, if that money is coming in on a TV dog, you won't even see the line move because the public will be betting the favorite in that game. There may be 8-10 college basketball games Thursday Night...that many again Friday afternoon and evening in tournaments...and perhaps 12-15 on Saturday because early season lines are so vulnerable to sharp action.
I can't emphasize this enough. GET BUSY AND GET INVOLVED!
If you're a do-it-yourself handicapper, there's no greater tutorial about college hoops as it stands RIGHT NOW than what you can deduce by watching the lines move during the course of the day. Combine what you know with what the sharps know, and that's likely to be a very profitable combination.
by Las Vegas linesmaker Nick Bogdanovich
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