What Sharp[s Think About NFL


Time once again to take a look at what the sharps are thinking in the NFL. As always, games are presented in rotation order so you can make notes on your schedule. We have relatively few games sitting on a field goal this week...after last week where it seemed like almost every game had a three-point spread! Let's jump right in.

DENVER VS. SAN FRANCISCO (in London): San Francisco got some early support even though third string quarterback Troy Smith is going to start. That tells you how little respect sharps had for the first two stringers...and how little respect they have for Denver right now. The Broncos were crushed by Oakland last week, and have one of the worst defenses in the league. An opener of pick-em is up to San Francisco by 1.5. The total is down a tick from 42 to 41.5.

JACKSONVILLE AT DALLAS: The injury to Tony Romo has led to a bunch of theories about whether or not Jon Kitna can win with the Cowboys. Sharps are basically taking Jacksonville at +7, but not playing the game at 6.5. If the public hits Dallas over the weekend and moves the line back up, sharps will take the full TD again.

WASHINGTON AT DETROIT: Big move here on Detroit from -1 up to -3. That's because a lot of sharps watched the Washington/Chicago game last week! Both the Redskins and Bears looked awful. Detroit as a bye, is getting it's #1 signal caller back, and showed a lot of spirit in a recent home win over. St. Louis. Sharps stopped hitting Detroit when it reached a field goal. They're happy with anything less than that. Nothing happening with the total.

GREEN BAY AT NY JETS: A move here on the Jets from -4.5 up to -6, with Green Bay coming off a huge Sunday Night game...and the Jets off a bye. That's two straight bye teams that got early money. The Packers have injuries...and the Jets will be fresh as a daisy. Sharps didn't drive the line up to -7. But, they did hit early knowing that the public was likely to back the favorite here. Nothing happening with totals yet but we'll see some moves soon.

CAROLINA AT ST. LOUIS: We have a two-point move on the total here, from an opener of 35 up to 37. I think that's because Matt Moore looked pretty good for Carolina last week. He's an upgrade from the rookie Jimmy Clausen. Full season numbers might suggest a 35...but Clausen dragged down the full season numbers. No interest on either team side yet. St. Louis will probably stay at -3 all week barring injury news.

MIAMI AT CINCINNATI: Not much interest yet in this game. The total is down a tick from 44 to 43.5. The line is near pick-em, and it's tough to trust either team late in close games the way they're playing right now.

BUFFALO AT KANSAS CITY: A lot of interest on the dog and Over after Buffalo's strong offensive showing in Baltimore last week. An opening line of Kansas City -9 is down to -7.5 (and is staying in the teaser window, which means oddsmakers are okay with taking a shot on Buffalo to pull the upset). An opening total of 43 is all the way up to 46. Both teams played very high scoring games last week. I'm surprised this total opened so low.

TENNESSEE AT SAN DIEGO: Not much movement here. Sharps are thinking about Tennessee at +3.5, but are hoping the public takes it up to four over the weekend. Squares will bet San Diego at home no matter what. Sharps won on this field last week with New England. In some games, a lack of early movement tells you who the sharps like. San Diego is a public team, sharps want to wait to see what they can get.

TAMPA BAY AT ARIZONA: Arizona opened at -3.5, and it got knocked right down to a field goal. Tampa Bay has impressed sharps this year when playing other teams in their class. Arizona needs lucky breaks to beat anybody lately. Sharps don't think that luck will hold up. The total is down a tick from 40 to 39.5.

SEATTLE AT OAKLAND: Oakland and Over got early support after their strong showing in Denver. An opener of 1.5 is up to 2.5 (but not yet three, which tells you something). The opening total of 40 is up to 42. Note that Seattle has been a big steam team from sharp action the past two Sundays. I think the sharps who didn't like Oakland would step in pretty hard on the Seahawks at +3. There's not always universal agreement amongst sharps. Market moves are sometimes reflecting only those who have bet so far.

MINNESOTA AT NEW ENGLAND: Big move here on New England from -3.5 up to -7 as pessimism grew throughout the week regarding Brett Favre's ankle. He's either going to play hobbled, which could be a disaster for the Vikings. Or, Tavaris Jackson will come off the pine rusty for a road start against a very tough opponent. Some of this was position taking also to set up a middle. This is a high profile TV game. Squares are likely to bet New England given Favre's condition. Some guys who didn't have an opinion took the Pats just to set up the middle possibility.

PITTSBURGH AT NEW ORLEANS: Tough one here. New Orleans is the defending Super Bowl champion, so it's very weird to see them around pick-em at home. Pittsburgh has the look of the next champion, but didn't impress last week at Miami. An opener of pick-em moved to New Orleans by 1. But, I'm not sensing a lot of passion for either team right now. The total went up from 43 to 44. Might be a pass game for sharps unless the public moves hard on one team. Then, sharps will fade the public.

HOUSTON AT INDIANAPOLIS: Indianapolis opened at -6, but is down to -5.5. Sharps respect Houston as a dog of this size with their improved running game. One might have thought that sharps would wait to see if the squares bet Manning hard in the revenge spot. So many sharps wanted Houston and at least six that some decided not to wait. The total is down a point from 51 to 50.

by Las Vegas linesmaker Nick Bogdanovich


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