Worst College ATS Teams


Last week at this time I ran through the top ATS teams this season in college football. As promised, I'm back this week to look at the worst.

Right now, nobody is winless against the spread. Everybody's covered at least one time...and we have a large hunk of teams nationally who are between the 4-2 and 2-4 marks through six games. That speaks to the relative parity in the sport right now, and the amazing inconsistency we're seeing from week-to-week. Few teams are so great that they can string together peak performances. Few teams are so bad that they're rarely in the ballpark.

Except these guys!

There are an unlucky seven teams who currently sit at 1-5 ATS for the season. They are:

*BOSTON COLLEGE: The Eagles have had trouble finding a quarterback they can trust. That and a general lack of weaponry has made it very hard for BC to play to past standards. You used to be able to count on them to show up and battle people. They looked awful against Notre Dame a few weeks ago. Though, they did give flat Florida State a thrill this past Saturday in a letdown spot off the Seminoles' upset of Miami. BC had been 0-5 against the number before that game.

*MARSHALL: Remember when the Thundering Herd should have upset West Virginia but lost the game in the final minutes? That was their only cover this year! They've obviously had some trouble recovering from that heartbreaker. Plus, in the games I've seen coverage of, the head coach seems a bit panicky and in over his head. Those ';emotional' guys who are great recruiters aren't necessarily great on the sidelines. The market has overrated this group by a good bit all season.

*MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE: This team got a lot of hype before the season started. I know many sharps who were looking to step in and make some money with them. Didn't happen! A suspension to the star quarterback didn't help. When he returned, he was rusty rather than great. This team has been playing way below expectations.

*NEW MEXICO and NEW MEXICO STATE: A lot of casual fans have trouble telling these two teams apart. The teams themselves are making that irrelevant because they're both so bad. Each is in a rebuilding phase under a relatively new head coach. Each is badly outclassed in their conference, even though they don't play in great conferences. It's just ugly football. Oddsmakers have been stacking the lines against both teams and still can't find the right number.

*PENN STATE: These guys were getting respect in the Preseason polls. You just can't trust true freshman quarterbacks to come in and have an impact right away. The Nittany Lions have struggled badly on offense. You can't cover spreads...particularly if you're a big name program that the public likes to bet on...if you can't score points. The home loss to Illinois was an eye-opener to many...but eyes should have been opened about this struggling program before that.

*RUTGERS: A tough season turned tragic this past weekend when a Rutgers player was paralyzed in the Army game. I'm not going to dwell on the negatives out of respect for what fans are going through right now.

Now, Wisconsin showed last week that a 1-5 ATS start doesn't mean your season is doomed. The Badgers had been 1-5 ATS (with the cover coming against an outlaw line in the Austin Peay game) but still managed to knock off the Number One team in the country. I wouldn't be surprised if a few of these teams offered value from this point forward just because the public won't touch them with a 10-foot pole. Wait until you see improved play though before you make any investments. We have had some pointspread disasters in recent years. Some of these teams look to be regressing rather than progressing.

Back in a couple of days to talk about the struggles many sharps are having this year in college football. You know the squares are getting nailed in the big TV games because of all the upsets. Sharps are winning those, but are still getting headaches with all the major conference teams bouncing around so inconsistently. There are always new challenges even for the very best handicappers in this sport.

by Las Vegas linesmaker Club Cal-Neva


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