Final Look at NFL Win Totals


With the NFL season getting underway this Thursday Night with the Minnesota/New Orleans playoff rematch on NBC, I wanted to take one final look at the Regular Season Win totals that are on the board in Nevada and offshore.

I've put together 'composite' lines from various stores. You can shop around and find better numbers for any prop you're thinking about betting most likely. You have some variety in the market because different stores put them up at different times, and most prefer moving the juice (the moneyline vigorish) rather than moving a full number and setting up a possible 'side' or 'middle' where they take a hit.

For example, if a team opens at 6.5 and everyone is betting the Over, the sportsbook will lift the vigorish to -150, -180, even -220 more rather than move to 7 or 7.5.

Note that many stores emphasize using 'half-wins' to eliminate the possibility of pushes. I've decided to use that approach with this listing as a result. You won't see any 'full' numbers like seven, eight, or nine. Every prop will be 7.5, 8.5, 9.5, etc...

There's been some movement the past few days...mostly with the Jets because they finally signed Darrelle Revis, and with Pittsburgh after Ben Roethlisberger's suspension was reduced from six games down to four games.

Let's run through all eight divisions with some brief notes after each...

NY Jets: 9.5 wins (pick-em)
New England: 9.5 wins (Under is -120)
Miami: 8.5 wins (Over is -130)
Buffalo: 5.5 wins (Under is -160)

The Jets have now snuck past the Patriots as the AFC East favorite (barely) with the news that Revis will be in the lineup. The market expects an entertaining three way race with Miami actually being favored to top 8.5 victories.

Baltimore: 9.5 wins (Over is -190)
Pittsburgh: 8.5 wins (Over is -140)
Cincinnati: 8.5 wins (Over is -120)
Cleveland: 5.5 wins (pick-em)

Pittsburgh jumped past Cincinnati with the news breaking about Roethlisberger. Baltimore is a heavy favorite to win the division though considering they're very expensive if you want to back them to reach 10 wins. Stores who don't mind pushes are posting 10 for the Ravens, and are even seeing the Over be favored at that higher number.

Indianapolis: 10.5 wins (Over is -120)
Houston: 8.5 wins (Over is -130)
Tennessee: 8.5 wins (Under is -150)
Jacksonville: 6.5 wins (Over is -130)

Is this the year Houston makes a run at Indianapolis? The market sees them threatening for a Wildcard. Many teams are in that 8.5 to 9.5 win range in the competitive AFC, meaning we could have quite a playoff race. That 10.5 might strike some of you as low for the Colts. They did make a run at an undefeated season last year. The market almost always prices in 'regression to the mean' for extreme records (good or bad). There's a chance of injury. A chance that the breaks don't go your way in close games. A few squares (public bettors) did well last year just asking the top teams to keep winning. We're seeing fewer dramatic quarterback injuries since rules to protect them have been adopted.

San Diego: 10.5 wins (Under is -130)
Denver: 7.5 wins: (Under is -190)
Kansas City: 6.5 wins (Over is -130)
Oakland: 6.5 wins (Over is -130)

This looks to be a bad division, but note the support for both Kansas City and Oakland making a run at something near a .500 mark. Denver isn't impressing anybody after their second half collapse last season. Could the Broncos fall all the way down to last place?

Dallas: 10.5 wins (Under is -150)
Philadelphia: 8.5 wins (Under is -140)
NY Giants: 8.5 wins (Over is -150)
Washington: 7.5 wins (Under is -130)

You don't often see a division where LAST place has a number that high. Some pundits are picking Washington to make a run at the playoffs after their coaching and quarterback changes. The market still has them at last place, but not that far off a Wildcard spot. Should be a very interesting season in this historically competitive division.

Green Bay: 9.5 wins (Over is -190)
Minnesota: 9.5 wins (Under is -140)
Chicago: 7.5 wins (pick-em)
Detroit: 5.5 wins (pick-em)

Green Bay has been getting support from sharps and squares alike, particularly after the offense looked so good in the Preseason. You'll see some 10's out there if you prefer to lay less juice and you think the Packers will be this year's Saints. The Packers and Ravens have been the most popular betting teams thus far, though they weren't priced as favorites in terms of raw wins. The market is supporting both enthusiastically.

New Orleans: 10.5 wins (pick-em)
Atlanta: 9.5 wins (pick-em)
Carolina: 6.5 wins (Over is -130)
Tampa Bay: 5.5 wins (Over is -150)

As we saw with the Colts, the other Super Bowl team...New also projected to fall back to earth in terms of victories. That's still the best number in the AFC though, as Dallas sees the Under as a heavy favorite at 10.5 wins. It's pick-em with the Saints. Atlanta is seen as a Wildcard threat. The market isn't too enthusiastic about the quarterback situation at either Carolina or Tampa Bay.

San Francisco: 8.5 wins (Over is -200)
Arizona: 7.5 wins (Over is -130)
Seattle: 6.5 wins (Over is -130)
St. Louis: 4.5 wins (pick-em)

Let's put San Francisco on the list of popular betting teams. Their support is at 8.5 wins instead of 9.5 wins like Baltimore and Green Bay. But, it's very clear who the market things will win this division. Support has continued to rise through the Preseason as San Francisco looked like they were taking care of business...while the other teams have clear issues. Arizona dumped projected starting QB Matt Leinart. Seattle doesn't look like they'll be having instant success under Pete Carroll. St. Louis will be starting rookie Sam Bradford, and it's tough to take the world by storm with a rookie signal caller. All those doubts about the other three teams are leading to bets on the 49ers.

by Las Vegas linesmaker Nick Bogdanovich


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