DIRECT FROM NEVADA WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH
SHARPS HAVE SOME STRONG OPINIONS
IN COMPETITIVE AFC
The last time we were together, I ran through some recent STEAM moves in the Regular Season Win betting markets. That day was devoted to the NFC. Today, we'll take a look at the AFC.
Because teams are generally presented in alphabetical order with these particular propositions rather than divisional order, I'll present the AFC line moves in that fashion. I'll be talking today about sharp opinions based on how the lines have moved from their openers a few weeks ago to what we see now.
CLEVELAND OVER 5.5
The Under was an early favorite at this number, with juice in the -115 to -120 range. That's flipped to the Over being favored. I've seen as high as -130 now if you want to bet the Over. Jake Delhomme has impressed in Preseason action at quarterback, at least if you compare him to what they've been getting from that position in recent seasons.
HOUSTON OVER 8.5
I saw a move just yesterday on the Over here, moving the juice up to -130 or -135 in spots. The Under had been a slight favorite through most of the summer. That may have been one aggressive sharp rather than a consensus of sharps influencing that number. If we see the juice go back down in the next couple of days, that will give us an answer.
JACKSONVILLE UNDER 7.5 AND 7
The sharps are really anti-Jacksonville from what I've been hearing. Under 7.5 opened around -150, and is now -200. Under at 7 is a favorite at -130. Multiple sharps have expressed their skepticism about this team to me in recent days.
KANSAS CITY OVER 6.5
We haven't seen a huge move here...but a moneyline near pick-em at 6.5 has moved up to -125 or so on the Chiefs. Some of the personnel guys like the changes they've seen on this roster. It's amazing how many different strategies there are for picking these props. Stat guys may love one option, personnel guys may be 180 degrees the other way.
MIAMI OVER 8.5
Here we have another favorite flip. The Under was favored early on in the -120 to -140 range depending on your store. The Over is now the favorite at about the same price. A lot of the sharp action hasn't moved 'the number' so to speak. Stores are reluctant to move numbers once they've put one on paper because they don't want to get 'sided' or 'middled.' This particular prop sees a lot of pushes. Were Miami to win 9 games, books don't want to pay out winners at Over 8.5, but no losers at Under 9. They'll try to lift the moneyline to encourage bets on Under 8.5 in a way that balances the books.
OAKLAND OVER 5.5 AND 6
There have been a variety of lines in play for the Raiders. Books who opened with a low 5.5 wins are now charging -225 if you want to bet the Over. Books who opened at 6 wins are now charging -170 or so to bet the Over. Those who thought they'd slow down the Over sentiment with a 6.5 have still had to lift the moneyline to -125. Oakland won five games last year without a quarterback. Now they have an average one. That's enough to inspire sharp money on the Over.
SAN DIEGO UNDER 10.5
This one has been gaining momentum in recent days. The Chargers were initially favored to go Over 10.5 with -130 vigorish. That's flip flopped now to where the Under is in that price range. Clearly, if you're a sharp who thinks Oakland and Kansas City both got better, then you probably think San Diego will have trouble coasting to 11 victories. In some years, an evaluation from a group of sharps will influence multiple teams in a division because everyone plays each other twice. That works out great if you're right...but magnifies your losses if you're wrong. Make sure you're right before attacking multiple teams in the same division.
Now you've got a sense of who the sharp teams are in both conferences. That will help your preparation as you study the dress rehearsal games this weekend. If you want to build an accurate set of Power Ratings, it's important to factor in sharp sentiment. These guys know what their talking about. They're not called 'Wise Guys' for nothing. Even if you don't do Power Ratings, it's good to contrast and compare sharp and square sentiment. You can't fall into the trap of thinking like a square. You want to be betting like a sharp!
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