What Sharps Think About AFC South
DIRECT FROM NEVADA WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH
WHAT SHARPS ARE THINKING THIS YEAR
ABOUT THE AFC SOUTH
Now that sharps (professional wagerers) have had some time to study the AFC South in greater depth, and see the teams in action for a week, there's definitely pessimism about the group as a whole.
In fact, the 'Under' is now a favorite for all four teams who have been priced in the following ranges for their Regular Season Win propositions...
Indianapolis 10.5 to 11 wins
Houston 8.5 wins
Tennessee 8.5 wins
Jacksonville 7 wins
The Under got hit with the Colts last week when it was announced Jeff Saturday would miss some action. He's the starting center who works so well with Peyton Manning. Sharps tend to fade the Colts anyway because the public loves betting on Manning. The injury to Saturday gave them an excuse to do so with additional just cause.
The lack of support for the other teams comes from the fact, I believe, that the AFC South has to play the always tough NFC East this year. Now that Washington has shown they'll be okay under new coach Mike Shanahan...the four-game sequence of Dallas-Philadelphia-NYG-Washington is going to be tough for all AFC South teams to get through.
Once sharps finished running their schedule data through the grinder, it was enough to move the moneylines on the Unders if not the actual lines.
In terms of the head-to-head stuff within the division, Indianapolis is still a clear favorite. Sharps usually don't lay points with Peyton Manning, but they have great respect for his ability to find a way to win a game straight up. The Colts HAVE to be considered divisional favorites as long as he's healthy. He just wins too many of the winnable games to ask anyone else to capture the division.
With the other three teams:
*Sharps don't trust the pass-heavy approach or the defense of HOUSTON. That's just not the style of play that can get to 10 wins on command in a given season unless you play in a horrible division. Sharps will pick their spots with the Texans as an underdog, or with Over bets in probable shootouts. This is not a team you ask to win close games for you though. They've failed too many times under this head coach.
*Sharps don't trust the quarterback situation in TENNESSEE. Vince Young is still too erratic. Kerry Collins may now be too old to trust if Young can't do the job. Chris Simms sure isn't the answer. Sharps will take the Titans at value prices in spots where defense will rule the day. That's about it until they see some improvement.
*Sharps haven't trusted JACKSONVILLE head coach Jack Del Rio for a few years now. Their time passed, and the franchise has been slow to take any action.
It's odd to see a 'respected' division get this little respect from sharps! There's certainly a chance that one of the four teams will break through and outperform expectations. Sharps like having the percentages in their favor. They'll be very careful about backing any of these teams. They'll try to find situations where the public has overrated the quality of any of the foursome.
Note that Tennessee will be featured this weekend on Monday Night Football against Arizona. Houston and Jacksonville both play Saturday Night...against New Orleans and Miami respectively. You know Indianapolis played last night against Buffalo up in Toronto, Canada.
We have one more division to study in this summer series of sharp strategies. I'll look at the AFC West the next time we're together Sunday morning.
I know many of you hate trying to pick Preseason games because you don't want to root for unknown backups to win your bets for you. Well, the sharps have done very well so far, as have many prominent handicappers. YOU CAN BEAT THE PRESEASON if you have the right information.
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