A Look At NFC Win Props



The offshore places have had Regular Season Victory props up for a few days now. That's given the sharp money time to influence the openers from the oddsmakers. I'm going to look at the NFC for you in today's report...because the defending Super Bowl champion is the New Orleans Saints. I'll come back in a couple of days and run the numbers for you in the AFC.

For each team I'm either going to post the range I'm seeing offshore (lines can differ by a half a game to a game with various juice), or the standard moneyline I'm seeing if there's general agreement on the number of wins. For example...Atlanta's pretty much at 9 wins everywhere...with the standard juice right now on the Over at -130. Dallas on the other hand is at 10 wins in some places, 10.5 in others. You can safely assume that betting Over the lower number and Under the higher number has added juice...sometimes a lot.

As always, if you have an opinion, it's best to shop around to get the best number. The great thing about 'futures' bets is that you'll find some variety if you shop. The worst thing from the bettor's perspective is that the sportsbooks get to hold your money in interest bearing accounts for several months while you sit wondering whether or not you're going to win!

Let's start in the NFC South, the home of New Orleans. Then I'll take you East to West through the divisions.

New Orleans 10.5 (Under -125)
Atlanta 9 (Over -130)
Carolina 7 to 7.5 (Under -130)
Tampa Bay 5.5 (Over -130)

You might be surprised that New Orleans is so low given that they went 13-3 last year before going the distance in the playoffs. Why the drop to 10.5? It's very hard to repeat in this league. Opponents gear up to stop what you're doing. Injuries are likely to hit much harder right after a great year just because you were probably enjoying good injury luck through the success. If Drew Brees gets hurt, so you think the Saints have a great shot to get to 11 wins? Betting on any team to reach double digits is, in essence, betting on good injury luck.

Atlanta is seen as the only other playoff contender right now in this division. Remember that 8-8 represents a .500 mark, and that rarely reaches the postseason. The market says Carolina and Tampa Bay are unlikely to get to eight wins.

Dallas 10 to 10.5
NY Giants 8.5 (Over -125)
Philadelphia 8.5
Washington 7.5 (Under -130)

This is always an interesting division...and it just got MORE interesting in the offseason when Donovan McNabb went from Philadelphia to Washington. Mike Shanahan is the head coach of the Redskins this year. The market is optimistic that he'll improve on last year's dismal 4-12 mark...but pessimistic that he'll get the Redskins out of the cellar in this very tough division.

As is the case in most seasons, Dallas, the NY Giants, and Philadelphia are all playoff contenders. Should be a great race once again.

Green Bay 9.5 (Over -140)
Minnesota 9.5
Chicago 7.5 to 8
Detroit 5 to 5.5

Green Bay takes over as the divisional favorite because of the uncertainty surrounding Brett Favre. The market thinks Favre is likely to return...but not definite to return. I think the Vikings would at least tie Green Bay on the moneyline if it was clear that Favre was ready to start the season at full health.

Not much of a reaction regarding Chicago where Mike Martz is taking over as offensive coordinator. The Bears went 7-9 last year, and are picked to finish right around that this season. You may think 5 wins seems too high for Detroit. They were just 2-14 last year. These props rarely go much below five just because of the historical tendency for everyone to regress to the middle. I know a few sharps who won good prop money last year just by asking the terrible teams to stay terrible. That may not work two years in a row.

San Francisco 8.5 to 9
Arizona 7.5 (Over -130)
Seattle 7 to 7.5
St. Louis 4.5 to 5.5

Hey, look at that. The market is picking San Francisco to win the West! Arizona will be starting Matt Leinart at quarterback this year because Kurt Warner retired. Seattle and St. Louis are in rebuilding periods. The 49ers finished 8-8 last year, and step up by default.

Do I believe San Francisco is ready to take the division? I can see why the market respects them more than the others. It's worth noting that the market wasn't that enthusiastic about Arizona each of the past two seasons...then didn't believe in them much in the playoffs either. If you think that was ALL Kurt Warner, then I can see dropping Arizona. If you respect the coaching staff and some of their other talent, this may be a third straight year where oddsmakers were caught napping with the Cards.

I don't formally release Regular Season Win totals for my clients as a general rule. I may mention a few possibilities closer to the season once I've had a chance to get reports from training camps...and to monitor the smart money as it continues to come in through the month of August. I'll be happy to keep you updated on the nuances of the market though. I trust you can take it from there if you're interested.

I'll be back Monday morning to look at the AFC, where Indianapolis hopes to repeat as champs...but New England, San Diego, and the usual suspects will be trying to take them out. Don't forget that NFL Preseason football is now just a week away. Call 1-877-822-2276 to sign up for football. Be sure to ask about baseball when you call. Game day releases are always available right here at the website for credit card purchase.

The market says New Orleans and Dallas are the frontrunners in the NFC. The next NFL champion may very well come from this conference once again. I can assure you that the best information about legal football wagering (both pro and college) will always come to you DIRECT FROM NEVADA!

This article is part of the VSM MASTERS SERIES presented by VegasSportsMasters.com. For more information on NICK BOGDANOVICH'S handicapping packages, call 1-877-822-2276.


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