"Listing" Pitchers Protects from Scratches
DIRECT FROM NEVADA WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH
MOST SHARPS SPECIFY PITCHERS WHEN MAKING MLB BETS
There was a late pitching scratch Monday Night in the Cincinnati/NY Mets game, when Aaron Harang was unable to go for the Reds because of a bad back. A new pitcher was announced. All prior bets listing the Harang/Pelfrey matchup were scratched. No action for most people.
Now, anyone who bet "action,"on the game, meaning they didn't care who the pitchers were, still had a bet, but they were at the mercy of the "adjusted"price for rookie Travis Wood. If they had bet the Reds, they were given better odds. If they had bet the Mets, they got worse odds.
Sharps almost always "box"or "list"the specified projected starting pitchers when they make a bet. They probably wouldn't be involved in the game unless there was something they liked about the pitching matchup in the first place. Plus, many don't "trust"the process of the adjusted line. They'll say "never put your bet at the mercy of the oddsmakers after they know who you like!"This strikes me as a bit paranoid, because every oddsmaker I know puts up a fair price in a situation like that. Still, it's your money and you have the power to make your own decisions.
These are the rare instances where it might make sense to bet "action"rather than name the pitchers.
- If a non-rotation starter is scheduled to go (middle reliever or a minor league call-up), and any changes would just result in a different non-rotation starter getting the nod...there's just not that big a difference. If you were betting against this team anyway, you don't want it to get scratched!
- If you're playing a streak...and you want to keep riding the streak. Handicappers using this approach aren't concerned with the starting pitchers. They're looking to ride a hot team or fade a cold team. If you believe in that approach, you obviously don't want a bet scratched just because a different pitcher is going...particularly if it's a change from one bad pitcher to another on the team you're fading.
- If you're betting a strange travel situation and you want to go against the tired team, a pitching change probably won't change your mind. Let's say a team played Sunday Night on the East Coast, and has to fly cross country for a Monday Night game on the West Coast (starting at 10 p.m. body time). Some sharps will bet against that team no matter who their pitcher is. Or, a team is playing a day game in Chicago against the Cubs after a night game in another city the evening before. I think any "bad body clock"game would be one where you could consider playing "action"instead of the pitchers.
For me, I prefer listing the pitchers. My selections are often strongly influenced by the strengths or weaknesses of the projected starters in that particular game (because of team history, home/road splits, suitability to the ballpark, whatever). It's nice to know I have options though if I need them.
You should really think through your strategy in this regard because the dog days of summer are known for these kinds of last-second surprises. This is especially true with bad teams that aren't getting much media coverage. If the worst team in baseball decides to go with a minor league call-up instead of a lousy back-end-of-the-rotation guy, it's not like ESPN is going to interrupt its programming for a bulletin. Sharps are prepared. You should be thinking and betting like a sharp!
That's why I'm here. I can show you how to do that. And, I can put you on the plays that the best minds in baseball betting are playing in Las Vegas and Reno. Sign up for my personal service by calling 1-877-822-2276. You can also purchase my BEST BETS here at the website with your credit card.
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