Strasburg Faders Showing Profit
DIRECT FROM NEVADA WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH
STRASBURG'S BEEN GREAT, BUT FADING HIM HAS WON!
It's the nature of legal sports gambling. Sometimes an individual athlete can be fantastic, but his team is so bad that you can't make any money by betting on the star to play at a high level.
You've seen it with some quarterbacks at the college and pro levels (particularly those on teams with bad defenses). You've seen it with a few high profile basketball players. Right now, it's unfolding before our eyes in the early stages of Steven Strasburg's career.
I mentioned earlier that oddsmakers are paying VERY close attention to Strasburg because he's getting so much media hype. The public will bet on media events even if they're not racing the betting windows as much as we had hoped this season. It's still a down economy (particularly in Las Vegas), so people are saving their money for football.
Except when Strasburg pitchers. Some people want to bet him because he's so overpowering. Others want to bet the other way because the prices are so high. Many are looking to bet props on strikeouts or pitch counts, just because that's a way you can ask Strasburg to win a bet for you without laying an exorbitant money line. We got more action than you're normally see on a Wednesday afternoon in his most recent appearance.
Here's what's happened so far:
- Strasburg (-200) beat Pittsburgh 5-2
- Strasburg (-190) beat Cleveland 9-4
- Strasburg (-175) lost to the Chicago White Sox 2-1
- Strasburg (-240) lost to Kansas City 1-0
2-2 is a disaster when you're laying high prices That's a record of 2-4.15 rather than 2-2. Strasburg backers are down 2.15 units already, and would now have to win his next two starts just to get back to even (assuming he's a favorite).
Going against Strasburg has yielded a profit. How much depends on the spread being offered at your store. If you assume about +160 on CWS, and +220 on Kansas City, those fading Strasburg have a unit record of 3.80-2, for a profit of 1.8 units. If they lose their next two efforts, they're just a shade below break even.
Oddsmakers are generally happy with how they've priced him so far. They're biggest concern is discouraging an avalanche of money coming in on the kid phenom. They don't want their employers to get one-sided. They can't risk a disaster if Strasburg gets hot and runs off several wins in a row. They have been posting high prices, and getting the results they were hoping for. If you have to pay out some sharps on their underdog bets, you live with it.
What should we expect to see from Strasburg the rest of the way? His spot in the rotation will miss the Baltimore series this weekend, which would have seen another very high number because the Orioles are so bad. He's set to pitch on the road at Atlanta early next week, then on the road against the NY Mets the following weekend. I'm VERY interested to see where the line settles in those games.
- Will Strasburg be a road favorite against playoff contenders even though his team is in a horrible slump?
- Will people come out of the woodwork to bet Strasburg now that he's more affordable and the hype has calmed down a little?
- Is Strasburg's early success a reflection of a soft schedule, and now he's about to be exposed as a green youngster in need of more seasoning?
The answers await. For my personal service, I'm thinking about Unders in his games because he'll be throwing in two good pitcher's parks. That's actually been the smart way to play him so far. Washington's games are 1-3 to the Under in his four appearances.
This weekend I'm very focused all the great Interleague matchups. I expect the sportsbooks to be buzzing because:
- There's a lot of Los Angeles money that makes its way to Vegas, and the Dodgers are hosting the Yankees (there's a lot of New York money that makes its way here too!)
- A lot of transplanted Chicagoans live in Nevada (particularly in Vegas, and especially in the media!). The Cubs and White Sox will be on a marquee TV screen in the sportsbooks all three days.
- There's a very strong schedule where a lot of top teams are playing each other. Baseball fans who only make a few trips to sportsbooks during the summer will definitely be coming out this weekend.
- The high number of rivalry games will bring in some additional action for people wanting to support their hometown teams.
I've got all the pitching matchups mapped out, and I'm very confident my clients and I will be having a huge weekend. Call 1-877-822-2276 to sign up for service. You can also purchase my BEST BETS here at the website with your credit card.
I know who to back at the right prices. I know who to fade at the right prices. And, I'm the guy who shows you every day why the best information comes DIRECT FROM NEVADA!
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