Low ERA?s Causing Low MLB Totals
DIRECT FROM NEVADA WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH
LOW MLB TOTALS MAKE SENSE WHEN YOU SEE LOW ERA'S
There's still a lot of talk about all the low totals in Major League Baseball this season. We're seeing a lot of 7's and 7.5's, and even some more 6.5's. There was a line of thinking that oddsmakers had gone too low when they started posting 6.5's. Maybe it's still not low enough!
If you take a look at team ERA's around the sport, it's clear why the totals have to be this low in some spots. Here's the top half of the National League through Monday's action.
San Diego 3.03
St. Louis 3.07
San Francisco 3.40
NY Mets 3.88
The league average right now is 4.20. That's everyone who's above average. And, these are STAFF earned run averages, so we're looking at earned runs allowed per nine innings.
That's two teams very close to there even. A couple around 3.5...then a bunch approaching 4.0. What would YOU make the total if two of those teams are playing each other?
- What about if it's a game involving better than average pitchers on each staff (the staff aces)?
- What if the game is being played in a good pitcher's park?
- What if the wind is blowing in?
- What if it's a getaway day, or a day game after a night game and a couple of key sluggers have been given the day off?
Or, better yet, why are you the guy saying "It's time to bet Overs" when so many factors are pointing to pitcher's duels! Don't you want to wait until you actually see some high scoring games with top pitchers before you start driving that bandwagon?
Based on those ERA's you just read, it's crystal clear that market totals HAVE to be that low right now. Here's the difference between sharps (professional wagerers) and squares (the general public) in terms of how they're handling these developments.
SHARPS are saying, "It's about time they moved the lines this low. I enjoyed cashing all of my Under tickets, but the market is finally taking some of my value away."
SQUARES are saying "I can't believe the totals are so low. I can't remember seeing numbers like this. The Overs have to be a LOCK!"
Steroids are out of the game. Run scoring is down. The market is slowly catching up to that reality. There may be other issues at play here as well in terms of teams doing a better job of protecting pitchers with pitch counts, teams doing a better job of evaluating pitchers. There's always several influences in baseball with any phenomenon. (Note that squares are always complaining about pitch counts because they want their starter to go 9 innings and win THAT NIGHT, while sharps are hoping the guy comes out at 100-105 pitches so he can win several more bets for them).
Here are the numbers for the top half of the American League.
Tampa Bay 2.94
NY Yankees 3.93
The league average is 4.19, and everyone else is below that. Note that AL and NL ERA's are almost identical, even though one league has the Designated Hitter and the other doesn't. Were you aware of that? I must have heard 20 squares in sportsbooks last week talking about how ERA's are higher in the AL because of the DH. God bless 'em.
That's half the league around 4.00 or better. What should totals be when those teams play each other with the top end of their rotation or in good pitching environments? These are the questions you should be thinking about.
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