Dog Success Shows Western Competitiveness
DIRECT FROM NEVADA WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH
EARLY DOG SUCCESS SHOWS COMPETITIVE WILD WEST
After everyone had finished the first four games of their opening round series (with only Orlando sweeping as the #2 seed in the East), it was clear that we had a big difference in competitiveness between the East and the West.
- Favorites were getting the money in the East, even though many of the hosts were very expensive to take.
- Underdogs were getting the money in the West, even though many in the know had had already been expecting some very tight battles between top quality teams.
Here's a quick breakdown...
EASTERN SERIES FAVORITES:
3-1 in the Orlando/Charlotte series
3-1 in the Boston/Miami series
2-2 in the Cleveland/Chicago series
2-2 in the Milwaukee/Atlanta series
That's 10-6 ATS in the first 16 games for series favorites in the East.
WESTERN SERIES UNDERDOGS:
3-0-1 in the Oklahoma City/Lakers series
3-1 in the Utah/Denver series
2-1-1 in the San Antonio/Dallas series
2-2 in the Portland/Phoenix series
That's 10-4-2 ATS in the first 16 games for series favorites in the West. Note that Game One of the Oklahoma City/Lakers series landed on 8. If you were betting the dog, you had plenty of time to get the push there. Lakers backers won at the late line of -7.5. I'm looking at this from the dog perspective, so I'm going to call that a push. Early bettors actually won that first game on Oklahoma City by the way.
Now, things can get interesting from Game Five on in a way that distorts the competitiveness of a series. If an underdog runs out of gas, they'll get blown out in their elimination game. If an underdog has a series lead, they may relax in one game so they can come back strong in another. It's possible for a "competitive" series to have blowouts in Games Five and Six before a tight Game Seven decides the winner.
I don't mean to suggest I'm taking series favorites in the East the rest of the way, and series dogs in the West. Just wanted to point out the differences in "competitiveness" to you that have been clear so far when measured against market prices.
I wouldn't be surprised to see those differences continue in the second round. The winners in the West are likely to be evenly matched, and more evenly matched than bettors currently realize. Cleveland and Orlando will be favorites in the second round in the East, and they have the horses to cover big prices when things are going well. Orlando has yet to put together four good quarters in a row, yet they're 3-1 ATS.
You often hear handicappers and pundits talk about their strategies for picking NBA playoff games. Be careful assuming one size fits all. In some years you're better served having different strategies for the West than you do for the East...just as you would having different strategies for series with fast paces rather than slow paces...or for series with great defenses rather than average defenses.
Handicapping is more complicated than you think...and more complicated than the markets give it credit for! That's why it's possible for sharps to win. If you do the work, you can beat the number. I know a lot of sharps who haven't been surprised at all by the underdog covers out West. They did the work going in. Those first four games actually contained few surprises in their eyes even though ESPN and TNT kept wondering what was happening to teams like the Lakers and the Nuggets.
If you've been struggling on your own because you didn't do enough preparation work, sign up with the man in the middle of the markets. You have a friend in Nevada who knows what the sharps are doing...who knows what the squares are doing...and who knows how oddsmakers are trying to play catch up already in this postseason. You can get my top releases by calling 1-877-822-2276. BEST BETS can also be purchased here at the website with your credit card.
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