NFL Draft Cutting into NBA Square Action
DIRECT FROM NEVADA WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH
MANY SQUARES ARE WATCHING THE NFL DRAFT INSTEAD OF BETTING THE NBA!
You have to assume NBA Commissioner David Stern was FURIOUS about the NFL deciding to stage its draft over two nights of prime time and a Saturday afternoon. Instead of having exclusive "big event" showcases on Thursday and Friday Nights, then sharing Saturday afternoon with the NFL draft...the NBA saw themselves buried by pro football hype.
Think about this...on a night where LeBron James and Kobe Bryant were both playing...and a night where Derrick Rose and Kevin Durant made statements about their great futures with dramatic home wins over the top seeds...everyone in the sports world was talking about who? TIM TEBOW!
Tebow got more attention for getting drafted 24th than Sam Bradford did for being #1! And, the buzz around the draft made one of the most entertaining nights in recent NBA playoff history virtually disappear.
In terms of Nevada betting, it made the square action disappear too. You could have deduced that for yourself in the Oklahoma City line move. They opened at -2...went to -2.5...went to -3...then -3.5...and all the way up to -4. Where was the Lakers money? It was sitting with a beer and Buffalo wings watching the draft! Squares love to bet the Lakers. They love rooting for Kobe. Except when something connected to football is on.
Sportsbooks were hoping the resurgent economy would provide a boost to betting this month. That is happening to a degree. But, not to the degree everyone wanted! The NBA "battle" is still largely oddsmakers vs. sharps. Sharps are okay with that. But, frankly, BOTH groups prefer a lot of public action. Sportsbooks can swallow losses to sharps because they make so much from squares. Sharps like fading the public and picking up free points when squares are lined up on the same team.
I can assure you that in the closing minutes of Lakers/Thunder the other night...sharps were mad they weren't able to get the hosts at a friendlier line. It was a nailbiter cover that might have been an easier win had public action come in on the Lakers and kept the number lower.
Will the square money come back at all during the playoffs? I think it will, but that might not be until the second round (or late in the Lakers/Thunder series if that goes six or seven games). The public still seems to be resting up from MARCH MADNESS. And, for some reason this year, they really got into the NFL draft. When the big name teams are down to the final eight, the final four, and the championship...particularly if it's a Kobe-LeBron championship (far from a sure thing this year, and it didn't even happen last year when everyone figured it would), we're going to see more public betting action.
For now, recognize that line movements you see are sharp moves and bet accordingly. You won't be getting free points fading the public. You won't be betting sharp picks at the best possible lines. But, at least you'll have a proper read on the markets. I'll let you know when the public gets more involved.
We've got a great weekend on tap in the NBA. Even if you yourself are committed to watching more of the NFL Draft, you should think about getting involved for the TV quadruple-headers set for Saturday and Sunday. It's definitely a "handicapper's market" because of all the stats, systems, angles, and injury information in play. Guys like me who are handicappers in addition to Sportsbook Directors have no trouble finding the softest spots in the market.
I'll prove that to you firsthand if you call 1-877-822-2276. You can also purchase my BEST BETS here at the website with your credit card.
Kobe and the Laker are in action again Saturday. LeBron and the Cavs play Sunday. All 16 teams play on one day or the other. During the single biggest action weekend we'll have in the NBA the rest of the way, it's vital that you find out why the best information comes DIRECT FROM NEVADA!
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