Oddsmakers Hate Late-Season NBA
DIRECT FROM NEVADA WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH
ODDSMAKERS ABSOLUTELY HATE
THE LAST 3 DAYS OF THE NBA SEASON
Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday will present real headaches for oddsmakers trying to post fair numbers in the NBA.
The schedule features:
12 games Monday
4 games Tuesday
14 games Wednesday
In many of them, neither team really cares who wins. In some of them, one team will care and the other won't. In a few of them, BOTH will have something at stake.
With the playoff spots largely set, most of what's 'at stake' is seeding positioning in the brackets. And, teams have established in the past that they don't battle as hard for positioning as they do for survival. You can't be sure of getting a peak effort even if the players are saying the right things to the media.
Oh, did I mention that many of the playoff teams will be resting their starters more than usual, even if they're talking about the importance of seeding? Or that some of the teams may actually be more motivated to LOSE rather to win based on who their first round opponents might be?
Wait...I've only talked about team sides so far. What about totals?!
Will teams slack off on defense with so little at stake, leading to higher scoring games than expected? Or, will everyone just go through the motions to get the games over with quickly, leading to lower scoring games than expected?
Will the free throw parades at the end of games disappear because nobody really cares who wins? Vegas lines are adjusted for that potential because it's so common. Will the handful of games that could feel just like the playoffs end up seeing those free throw parades start earlier than normal...turning what had been low scoring games into Overs anyway (something we've seen a lot of the past week or so)?
As I've told you often in the past, if oddsmakers are getting headaches, then the lines are vulnerable! This is when YOU should be attacking what you consider to be soft spots. These last three days of the regular season present a player's market that will allow you to build your bankrolls for the coming playoffs.
*Study recent results to determine which non-playoff teams are still playing with fire. There are a few of them....and these teams have made sharps a lot of money of late.
*Study the boxscores to see who's playing defense and who isn't. It's just not that hard to figure it out. You can win with side and totals bets in Nevada going against the teams who aren't playing defense.
*Study what's happening in the playoff style games with totals. If there are late free throw parades, focus you Under bets on first quarter or first half action.
*Determine as best as possible what teams in the playoff picture REALLY want for a first round matchup. It's not always obvious from what the coaches and players are telling the media. It usually is fairly clear if you're watching the flow of the games.
You're reading and hearing about a lot of handicappers and big bettors who are having great runs lately in the NBA. This isn't a surprise. It happens every year. Oddsmakers are limited in the range they can post for numbers. Nevada bettors can pass any game they want, and play any soft line they see. Again, it's a PLAYER'S MARKET. If you're a player, you have to take advantage.
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