MLB Season Win Totals
DIRECT FROM NEVADA WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH
BETTING MARKETS PROJECT TIGHT RACES
IN MAJOR LEAGUE DIVISIONS
Major League Baseball starts tonight when the New York Yankees visit the Boston Red Sox in Fenway Park on ESPN2. Most everyone else starts Monday, with a very big afternoon schedule that includes Philadelphia, St. Louis, the LA Dodgers, and the NY Mets. 2009 division winners Minnesota and the LA Angels face off against each other Monday Night.
It's time to start thinking about baseball!
Many sharps (professional wagerers) were way ahead of you. They've been betting the 'regular season win totals' since they first went up several weeks ago. I've always found these win totals to do a much better job of predicting the season than anything you see in mainstream media publications. Sure, there are a few surprises teams every year (both good and bad). The 'market' is a better projection of future reality than anything I've seen.
Remember, in this proposition, we're looking at:
*The best guesses from oddsmakers about how teams will play (largely uninfluenced by shading against public action...the public doesn't like betting these!).
*The best bets from professional wagerers, who 'improve' upon the educated guesses of the oddsmakers with educated guesses of their own.
It's basically a consensus of the best analytical minds. Not newspaper writers or former players trying to look fit into a suit and tie...but guys WHO MAKE THEIR LIVINGS PUTTING THEIR MONEY WHERE THEIR MOUTHS ARE!
I've gathered up the ranges of projected wins I've seen in Nevada and offshore. Assume you have to pay a little extra juice to go Over the lowest total for each team, or Under the highest total. These are ranges, meaning smart players can shop around for the best price.
If you see anything that appeals to you, you still have time to bet it before the season starts tonight. Just remember that a sportsbook gets to hold your money for six months even if you're right! That's one reason the public shies away from futures bets like this. They don't want to tie up a significant portion of their bankroll for that long.
Sharps DO bet these...and I want you thinking and betting like a sharp. Remember that next year! Or, this summer when the football lines come out for regular season wins.
You'll note that the market expects some very tight races this season...
2010 MLB PROJECTED WINS
NY Yankees 94.5 to 95
Boston 93 to 94.5
Tampa Bay 89 to 89.5
Baltimore 73.5 to 74
Toronto 70 to 71.5
Still the Yankees and the Red Sox sitting at the top of the heap. Those are the best two marks in the whole American League by a good bit. Only Philadelphia of the NL has a number higher than 90. Note that Toronto is projected to fall off the map this year as they start a rebuilding process.
Chicago White Sox 82.5 to 84
Minnesota 82.5 to 83.5
Detroit 80.5 to 81.5
Cleveland 74.5 to 75
Kansas City 71.5
That's three teams within a few games of each other at the top of this group. And, I've heard some guys like Cleveland to take a big step forward after last year's collapse. Should be a great race, though the best ball in the AL is likely to be played over in the East.
LA Angels 83.5 to 84.5
Texas 83.5 to 84.5
Oakland 78 to 79.5
The Angels never get any respect from the market. I've been talking about this for years! They've taken some personnel hits, and are expected to fall back to the back as a result. Texas is improved. Seattle added Cliff Lee. Looks like three potentially great races in the AL.
Philadelphia 92.5 to 93.5
Atlanta 86.5 to 87
NY Mets 80.5 to 82.5
Washington 70.5 to 71
Philadelphia was great already, then added Roy Halladay from Toronto. They're expected to do what they want in the inferior Senior Circuit. Atlanta's currently projected as the NL Wildcard based on these numbers.
St. Louis 88 to 88.5
Chicago Cubs 82.5 to 83.5
Milwaukee 80.5 to 81
Cincinnati 79 to 79.5
Houston 74.5 to 75
Pittsburgh 69.5 to 70
If St. Louis stumbles, there are three teams right behind them who would have a shot at the division. The Cubs may improve simply because Milton Bradley isn't there any more. They certainly have the payroll to get back to the top.
LA Dodgers 84.5 to 85.5
Colorado 84 to 84.5
San Francisco 82.5 to 83
Arizona 81.5 to 82.5
San Diego 70.5 to 71.5
Wow...four teams within three games of each other according to these projections. The Dodgers are dealing with the nasty divorce of their ownership family. That's getting a lot of press out here even if you're not reading much about it where you live. If that brings the Dodgers back to the pack...we're looking at a lethal pack ready to take advantage. Colorado was a playoff team last year. San Francisco is young and improving. Arizona is long overdue to bounce back and be a force again. Great division!
I love handicapping baseball because of the rhythm you get into seven days a week. Football is weekends only. Basketball has busy nights and quiet nights. Baseball goes hard and heavy from now through September. Sharps will tell you it's THE BEST SPORT for making money because you can really build a huge bankroll thanks to the busy schedule.
Sharps will also tell you that the market is softest EARLY in the season because the lines are based on last year's perceptions. That means YOU should be thinking about jumping in RIGHT NOW! Call 1-877-822-2276 to sign up for my personal service. You can also purchase my BEST BETS here at the website with your credit card.
Sign up for April baseball (or the season), and I'll include Monday Night's NCAA Championship game at no additional charge. Whatever the sport...whatever the month...I'm happy to show you why the best information will always come to you DIRECT FROM NEVADA!
This article is part of the VSM MASTERS SERIES presented by
VegasSportsMasters.com. For more information on NICK BOGDANOVICH'S handicapping packages, call 1-877-822-2276.
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