Oddsmakers Struggling With Lakers
DIRECT FROM NEVADA WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH
ODDSMAKERS HAVING TROUBLE GETTING A READ ON THE LAKERS
I can tell you first hand that oddsmakers HATE the latter stages of a pro season when you can't tell for sure what kind of effort teams are going to bring.
We've been seeing that play out for a few weeks now with the Los Angeles Lakers in the NBA.
You saw a schizoid tendency with them last week:
- The Lakers beat San Antonio on the road 92-83, covering the spread by 11 points as a two-point underdog. GREAT performance.
- The Lakers lost their next game to Oklahoma City 91-75, missing the spread by 17 points in a game that was never a contest. LA was down 33 entering the fourth quarter. Talk about a non-effort. It was nice for nostalgia sake to see Adam Morrison getting some minutes. But, as improved as Oklahoma City is this year, there's just no way they should beat up on Los Angeles like that.
- The Lakers beat Houston the very next night 109-101, covering by a bucket. Nice bounce back. Obviously the shorthanded Lakers believed they had a better chance of winning in Houston than Oklahoma City in the back-to-back, and game planned accordingly.
- The Lakers lost to New Orleans 108-100 as a 6-point favorite, missing the spread by 14 points. It was the third game in four involving Kobe's bunch that had missed Vegas expectations by double digits.
Up and down like a yo-yo. Oddsmakers want CONSISTENCY! When they see teams bouncing up and down like that, they become very concerned about sharp money getting in synch with coaching strategy or injury developments. Consistency is an oddsmaker's best friend. Inconsistency AND information about why teams are playing inconsistently can be one of their worst nightmares.
One of the problems here is that the Lakers don't have much to play for right now. It would be very hard to catch Cleveland for best record in the league (and home court advantage in a potential championship series between the two). It would be very hard to BLOW home court advantage in the West. The Lakers position in the postseason is basically set already. They can split out their games, rest up, and nothing will change.
Also, Andrew Bynum has been out for an injury for a few weeks. Why kill yourself trying to make up for his absence in games that don't matter much?
The Lakers can be tough to get a feel for in the best of times. I show them at 6-13-1 ATS their last 20 games...and about 31-41-2 for the season (depending on which lines you use) for the season. Some of that is shading the line against the public. But, the public hasn't been all that active in the NBA this year. Some of that is just plain overrating the Lakers.
I've always told you that you should be attacking the line at its weak points. The Lakers right now represent a weak point. Oddsmakers don't know what they're going to get from night to night. And, even back when they thought they did, they were still overshooting the mark!
Now that college hoops is about over, it's time for you to start thinking more about the NBA. I'll outline what sharps are thinking about the Final Four in my next report on Friday. From that point on, we'll be focusing on NBA and baseball. If you'd like some help getting up to speed, you can sign up for my service by calling 1-877-822-2276. My BEST BETS can also be purchased here at the website with your credit card.
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