What The Sharps Think About The NIT
DIRECT FROM NEVADA WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH
WHAT SHARPS ARE THINKING
ABOUT TUESDAY'S NIT SEMIFINALS
As promised, I'm back to talk about what sharps (professional wagerers) are thinking about Tuesday Night's Final Four games in the NIT.
DAYTON VS. MISSISSIPPI: Sharps made an early move toward Dayton here, impressed with the team's one-sided victory at Illinois in the last round. Ole Miss opened as a 2-point favorite. I've seen pick-em or Dayton +1 since then. Remember, the public doesn't bet many openers in college hoops...and they don't bet the NIT until game day if they bet it at all. So, that early move was definitely based on sharp action.
The total opened at 143, and fell down to 142. That may be a computer move based on full season data. These teams have been playing higher scoring games lately, so a move Under would be against recent form. Some sharps like playing Unders in 'big' games because things can slow down in a tight second half. That's been fairly rewarding of late.
Clearly early sharp action on Dayton and the Under against the openers.
NORTH CAROLINA VS. RHODE ISLAND: This game opened pick-em, with early money making Rhode Island a one-point favorite. I was a bit surprised that money came in early. You have to figure the public is going to bet better known North Carolina. If you like Rhode Island you might as well wait to see if you can get some points. I think some sharps were concerned other sharps were going to get too aggressive with the Rams. Carolina still isn't a team that's trusted by sharps after their poor play most of this season. And, the A10 seems to be getting some respect off that great game by Xavier the other night. Note that money hit both A10 teams in the NIT semifinals.
The total jumped from 147 to 149.5, which is a big move obviously. Rhode Island played to 151 in their win at Virginia Tech, and 168 in their victory over Nevada in the prior round. North Carolina landed on 150 and 152 in their first two NIT games, but slowed way down in their road victory at UAB in the quarterfinals. You can see the thinking for that move based on the style these teams play, and their form so far in the tournament.
Can we expect any surprises on game day?
I've said in the past that sharps often wait until late to act when they like the underdog. These games are so close to pick-em...in a relatively non-marquee event in the public's eyes...that there's not as much of a sense of urgency about that. Sharps wanted Dayton and got their two points from the opener. I do think there's a set of sharps waiting to take Rhode Island on hopes that the public is going to move the line between now and tip off.
I'll be back Wednesday with some NBA notes. Publication deadlines will prevent me from discussing the NIT finals, so be sure you monitor early lines moves in that game to get a sense of sharp action. Friday's report will go over what the sharps are thinking about the Final Four in the Big Dance. By then I'll have met personally with many big time bettors in addition to having a great read on the action based on my position as Sportsbook Director at Cal-Neva. I greatly appreciate that so many of you come back on a regular basis for your updates on what professional wagerers are doing here in Nevada. And, thanks VERY MUCH for your poll voting here at the website!
I've had a great run this year in college basketball. I hope you'll join me this week for the CBI Finals (best of three starting Monday Night), the NIT Final Four (semifinals Tuesday and championship Thursday), and the College Insider final game (Tuesday Night championship). We'll have even more to play with this weekend after winning those games. Call 1-877-822-2276 to sign up for service. If you register for the rest of the NBA season (through the playoffs), I'll include this last week of colleges at no additional charge. Don't forget that baseball is coming up soon. The season starts this Sunday Night!
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It's truly been MADNESS this March. April's on the immediate horizon, and it's going to be awesome. Let me show you through ALL the sports year round why the best information comes DIRECT FROM NEVADA!
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