Surging Milwaukee Bucks Surprise Markets



You're not supposed to clear 65% winners just by betting the same team over and over again. You've probably heard your whole lives that the legal betting markets react too quickly for that.

  • Oddsmakers follow all sports extremely closely. Nothing ever catches them by surprise (Yeah, right...don't tell that to sharps!).
  • Sharps are quick on the trigger whenever news is breaking. So, even if the oddsmakers do miss something, all the value is bet out of the line immediately. Lines are "perfected" once sharp action has shaded the opener.

Well then, explain the Milwaukee Bucks to me. After a weekend win in Denver (an OUTRIGHT win as a 10-point road underdog), Milwaukee sat at 44-23-1 ATS for the season. That's just two wins under a stunning 67% winners for the full season. And, it's been a very balanced performance:

  • Milwaukee was 20-11-1 ATS at home
  • Milwaukee was 24-12 ATS on the road

Those records were after the Denver game (Milwaukee played Monday Night after publication deadlines). Your records might vary a little depending on when you wrote down the game line.

Milwaukee was, particularly during a RED HOT stretch for several weeks recently, an extremely underpriced team. It's not like they were great at home but lousy on the road. It's not like they were a great road dog but you couldn't rust them at home where the prices were higher. Milwaukee was a value team EVERYWHERE!

Lines have been adjusting lately. The Bucks were road favorites at Sacramento and the LA Clippers on their recent Western swing. Few squares really noticed because they were paying so much attention to college basketball. What really caught the eye of a lot of people was Milwaukee laying -6 at home to Atlanta Monday Night. There was no March Madness on the hoopheads looking to bet saw Milwaukee -6 and thought there was a mistake.

No mistake. Milwaukee really had become that hot!

  • 8-1 straight up the prior 9 games
  • 14-2 the prior 16 games (!!)
  • 20-5 the prior 25 games

They had become the Cleveland Cavaliers!

No, I don't believe the Bucks are suddenly a league superpower. But, they have been trying hard every night, and that's most of the battle in a league where people question the game-to-game intensity of many teams in the second half of the season. Frankly, the fact that a team like MILWAUKEE can go 20-5 straight up over 25 games means the integrity of the effort SHOULD be questioned! Give Milwaukee credit for playing every night like it matters. The NBA would be more popular with fans (and legal sports bettors) during the long grind of the season if more teams weren't just earning paychecks.

It may be too late to jump on this bandwagon now given how high the prices are. Just remember that some sharps thought that a week or two (or four) ago but the Bucks kept right on winning and covering. The point I want to make today is: the markets don't catch everything. It IS possible to beat the line by studying a sport or a team very closely, and recognizing when they aren't being priced properly. And, as I've stated often over the years, that's even MORE possible when most bettors are focused elsewhere.

  • NBA is easier to beat during peak interest in college hoops.
  • NBA and College Hoops are vulnerable in November and December when football is still going on.
  • Baseball is easier to beat when football starts in the fall.

If you're paying attention, you can find red hot or ice cold teams and earn some big money. If you feel you don't have time to do that, sign up with the man who lives smack dab in the middle of the legal sports betting markets. I'm a former oddsmaker and current Sportsbook Director in Nevada. I'm a big bettor. I've won the most respected handicapping contests known to man. I can help you beat the markets!

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