SQUARES BACK IN ACTION, MAKING THE SAME MISTAKES!
DIRECT FROM NEVADA WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH
SQUARES BACK IN ACTION, MAKING THE SAME MISTAKES!
I lot of squares (the Vegas term for the public bettors) have been out of action since the Super Bowl ended. Part of that is because of the down economy. Part is that some people only want to bet the big events. MARCH MADNESS is a big event, so people start coming out of the woodwork for the major conference tournaments you've been watching on TV this week.
They're back, and they're making the same mistakes as always!
You'd think the time off would have helped them develop a better strategy than one that always loses. Nope. Here are just a few of the mistakes I've seen squares make this week:
*They think the best seeds or the bye teams are invincible. The Big East tournament was just carnage for these guys because they bet Syracuse over Georgetown, Villanova over Marquette, Pittsburgh over Notre Dame, and West Virginia over Cincinnati. That's 0-4 against the spread in the biggest TV event!
Even worse, I heard some guys whining about losing the favorites on the moneyline. Some squares talk themselves into the "well, they might not cover, but there's no way they'll LOSE this game" line of thinking. They lay exorbitant prices figuring the "better" team will find a way to win late even if they don't win a blowout. Great, if the game turns into a coin flip, you're laying -300 or -400 hoping heads comes up! The favorites went 1-3 straight up in those games I just listed.
*They double up to catch up if they lose in early action. Squares figure they can't possibly keep losing. They're just too smart for that! Sorry, Vegas is built as much on the weaknesses of human nature as it is on having the odds in its favor. If you don't know what you're doing, doubling the size of your bet isn't very smart!
From the sportsbook's perspective, one of the perks of offering second half lines is that it gives losing gamblers a chance to "chase" if they're team falls behind. "Well, they played a bad first half, but there's no way they'll play two bad halves in a row," they say to themselves (or out loud for that matter!). You can tell from the final scores all over the board how that worked out for everyone.
*They play WAY too much action. Whenever somebody takes a break from gambling, they get so excited when they're back in the game that they go overboard. Poker players see too many flops at the Hold-em tables. Blackjack players go for 2-3 hours instead of stopping after one (millions of annual tourists can tell you about that one). Sports bettors play games all over the board instead of the handful where they might actually have a feel.
Put those three together, and you have a sense of what sportsbooks looked like in Las Vegas and Reno once the conference tournaments got started this week. People who hadn't been in action for a long time bet way over their heads in terms of the number of games and bet size...bet on too many favorites...then chased many of those teams after bad first halves...then chased after their losses in the late games...which usually cost them even more money.
A disaster for squares! Sportsbooks were happy to see this after handing away so much money to sharps on totals in the weeks leading up to the postseason.
Did I just describe your personal experience with the tourneys this week? Is that what YOU did? I'm certainly not describing my clients. We went 6-1 to start the tourneys because I know how to put the dynamics of the legal sports betting market in our favor. I can do the same for you this weekend in all the big semifinal and final games.
Call 1-877-822-2276 to sign up for the rest of MARCH MADNESS. We still have a busy weekend card on tap. Then, the NIT and NCAA Tournaments will begin shortly thereafter. You may have missed that 6-1 start, but I have a great history through ALL of MARCH MADNESS, not just the first few days.
Game day releases and packages can also be purchased here at the website with your credit card. Those may include the occasional NBA play. As an oddsmaker and Sportsbook Director, I can tell you that one of the best times to beat the NBA is when Nevada is buzzing about college hoops. The pro lines are softer. You may have noticed that yourself this week.
Stop betting like a square. START THINKING LIKE A SHARP! I'm the man ideally suited to teach you how to do that. I'll show you all the way through the rest of the tourneys why the best information comes DIRECT FROM NEVADA!
This article is part of the VSM MASTERS SERIES presented by VegasSportsMasters.com. For more information on NICK BOGDANOVICH'S handicapping packages, call 1-877-822-2276.
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