Sharps Attack Mid Majors
DIRECT FROM NEVADA
WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH
SHARPS GEARING UP FOR MID MAJOR TOURNEYS
The tournament schedule really explodes this weekend with action in the Colonial, Missouri Valley, Horizon, Southern, Ohio Valley, Metro Atlantic, West Coast, and Sun Belt Conferences.
And, that's just Friday and Saturday! The Mid American Conference gets rolling Sunday Night with first round games at campus sites.
Sharps (professional wagerers) love betting these so called mid-major tournaments. They still make MAJOR MONEY! If you know the teams (and nobody knows the teams like sharps do!), you can really make a killing in this tournament format.
As a Sportsbook Director and former oddsmaker, I can tell you that the guys behind the line HATE these mid major tournaments. They just don't follow these lesser teams very closely. There are very few if any public teams to shade the lines against. Actually, whenever the public isn't involved...and it's just oddsmakers vs. sharps...oddsmakers get very antsy. They know they have to play defense and hope for the best.
Here's what the Wise Guys are using on offense:
- Computer evaluations on every single team. There are now websites out there that track stats in complete detail. Oddsmakers know about the sites, but are too busy juggling too many things to keep abreast of all developments.
- An emphasis on recent form. Sharps want to know what's happening lately. Oddsmakers tend to trust their power ratings in these lesser leagues and often go into battle with outdated numbers. Sportsbooks have had a lot on their plate lately, with all the big TV games in college hoops and increasing interest in the NBA now that we're in the stretch drive. Oddsmakers don't have the time to know who's hotter between Hofstra and Georgia State, or San Diego and Santa Clara. They're aware of recent results, but sometimes the power ratings just don't capture how the teams are playing right now.
- An understanding of how things change day to day. You often see extreme high's and low's in tournaments. A team shoots lights out in the first round, but can't hit the backboard the next day. A power struggles badly in the first game, but finds their better form after that. Oddsmakers NEVER price based on reversals of form. They either trust their power ratings, or adjust in favor of what happened the prior day rather than against it. I know some sharps who don't bet opening day, but then put their money on "regression to the mean" strategies in the next round. Oddsmakers have very little defense against this.
- The ability to create middles with smart betting strategies. This can be a very big deal in the smaller tournaments because sportsbooks get panicky. If they see sharp money coming in on one side, they'll move the line quickly. Well, sharps know that, and will try some swerves or headfakes with early betting. Then, after the line move, they'll come back over the top harder on the team they actually preferred. That sets up a potential middle where they can win both bets if the game lands on the right number.
Let's say a big Vegas bettor did a headfake by betting a one-point favorite early on. If the line gets to three, he comes back over the top bigger on the dog. His money is on the dog in terms of profit/loss. But, if the favorite wins by exactly two points, that high roller wins both bets...and his sportsbook take a bath on the game. If the favorite wins by one or three, the bettor goes 1-0-1 and pockets a nice chunk of change.
In neutral site tournaments, you see A LOT of games go right down to the wire. It's common for the game to be decided by 1-3 points. That makes a middling strategy very powerful in games that are expected to be competitive.
The goal of these articles is to get you thinking like a sharp, and betting like a sharp. I hope you'll put these sharp strategies to use in the tournaments. Study the teams. Know what's been happening lately with everyone because you want to bet based on how the teams are playing NOW. Remember that there's an ebb and flow in tournaments that you can exploit. And, even if you don't have the bankroll to create swerves, be aware of line value and try to position yourself at the best possible numbers.
If you'd like some help doing this, sign up for my personal service by calling 1-877-822-2276. You can also get my TOURNAMENT BEST BETS here at the website with your credit card. Through Wednesday Night's action, my record was 52-31 since January. Nobody's documented at a better percentage over that level of volume!
You know March is a dream month in Las Vegas and Reno. It's the best possible time for me to show you that the best information always comes DIRECT FROM NEVADA!
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