San Francisco/Green Bay May Have Trouble Earning

Tony Salinas: San Francisco/Green Bay May Have Trouble Earning

The most anticipated of the Sunday afternoon NFL battles this week is the San Francisco 49ers visiting the Green Bay Packers in a game that just missed being last year's NFC Championship matchup...and that could well be a playoff preview for this coming January.

Green Bay went 15-1 last year during the regular season. But, they lost in the playoffs to the NY Giants. Those Giants went on the road to beat San Francisco the very next week (a team that finished 13-3 in the regular season) before beating New England in the Super Bowl.

You watched the Giants open the season with a loss this past Wednesday Night to Dallas. It's not uncommon for great teams from the season before to get caught flat-footed like that the following year. This is something that could happen to BOTH San Francisco and Green Bay through September and the rest of the 2012 campaign even though they didn't reach the Super Bowl. You're not likely to find much betting value on those teams

Here's a list of the teams who went 12-4 or better back in 2010.

New England 14-2
Atlanta 13-3
Pittsburgh 12-4
Baltimore 12-4

Here's how those four teams did last year in 2011 against the Las Vegas spread.

New England 9-7 ATS
Atlanta 7-8-1 ATS
Pittsburgh 7-9 ATS
Baltimore 8-7-1 ATS

That's exactly 50/50 if you add it up. 31-31-2. Down about three units counting the vigorish. Now, to be fair, you would have lost those same three units if you were trying to FADE those teams. You'd have had the same 31-31-2 record that juiced out. My point is that there's no value in backing teams coming off a year where they had a great record.

Here are the teams in 2011 who were 12-4 or better

Green Bay 15-1
San Francisco 13-3
New England 13-3
New Orleans 13-3
Baltimore 12-4
Pittsburgh 12-4

It's interesting that some of the biggest early week steam moves involved smart money hitting the board against New England and New Orleans. Professional bettors believed oddsmakers had overpriced those teams based on last year's records. And, I should mention that many of those same smart money bettors also went against San Francisco and Baltimore to a lesser extent. To me, this is clearly a case of oddsmakers pricing based on how they expected the public to bet the big name teams...with smart money stepping in to knock things down a bit.

I may or may not be playing that San Francisco-Green Bay game for my clients Sunday. You'll have to sign up for my service to find out. I will be watching to see how the networks hype whoever wins the game because that may influence picks I make next week and beyond. I can tell you that I've thought very seriously about a few live dogs on the Sunday card, as well as a favorite or two that isn't getting enough respect in my view. I can sum up my general opening Sunday strategy this way:

  • Look to fade favorites who have been getting too much media hype in the offseason and through the exhibition games.

  • Look to back underdogs who have been getting seriously disrespected by the national and local media over the last two weeks (and there are several of those!).

  • Look to back affordable favorites who have stayed off the radar in terms of media coverage (sleepers, in other words).

  • Look to play Overs where weather conditions (or fast tracks indoors) will help good quarterbacks move the ball effectively.

  • Look to play Unders where weather conditions will help good defenses control the game (which would only be from wind and occasional rain in early September).

Once you purchase my slate of games, that outline of reasoning will help you see where I was coming from with those selections. You can take care of that right now here at the website with your credit card. If you have any questions, call my office Sunday morning at 1-888-536-8880. I won't be able to talk to you directly because Sunday mornings are crazy out here in Las Vegas! If you live on the East Coast, remember that the games kick off at 10 a.m. local time.

I'm an action-minded bettor. I couldn't possibly ask clients to bet each and every pick and proposition I play myself. My clients only get the plays I'm betting the BIGGEST within my own personal bankroll. You may not be a high roller now. I'll do my best to make you one with a season of my best bets.

Stop taking the worst of it with your own plays. Start GETTING THE BEST OF IT with TONY SALINAS!

19
Nov

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