Notre Dame Still Burning Money
Tony Salinas: Notre Dame Still Burning Money
For as long as I can remember...and that's a VERY long time for a veteran bettor like me...the Notre Dame Fighting Irish have been overrated in Las Vegas. Even if the aura isn't the same as it used to be, this is still the ultimate "public team." Squares WANT to bet on Notre Dame, and will use any justification to do so.
If the media is high on Notre Dame, they'll fire away with both fists. You should have seen some of the betting last year when the Irish started getting good press. People lost their shirts when the Irish steamed vs. Southern Cal then couldn't even win straight up as a home favorite.
If the buzz has cooled down in the media, well, people figure it's going to be a bounce back year and Notre Dame will offer value (these are the same people who bet on black at the roulette wheel right after a string of reds...there are no good bets in roulette no matter what colors or numbers have just come up!)
And, heaven forbid the team is actually good enough to qualify for a BCS bowl. It's been a few years since that's happened. Remember the name Brady Quinn? He was the quarterback of the Notre Dame team that got obliterated by LSU in the Sugar Bowl. This was a game where many TV talking heads were picking Notre Dame to win outright in an upset.
I went and grabbed Notre Dame's pointspread records over the last nine years. It's not a disaster by any means. Oddsmakers do a pretty good job these days of getting their numbers in the right neighborhood. Do you see any value?
NOTRE DAME SPREAD RECORDS
The best record is 7-5 against the number, which is +1.5 betting units because of the vigorish (the extra 10% you lose on lost bets). The overall record over those nine seasons is 49-61-2. That's 45% against the spread, which is already bad enough. But, when you factor in the juice, it becomes 49-67.6, which is minus 18.6 units. That will leave a mark!
Now, Notre Dame may cover the spread in their early Saturday game against Navy (9 a.m. ET kickoff, 6 a.m. Vegas time) that's being played over in Ireland and will be nationally televised by CBS. But, I'm pretty confident in saying that you probably won't be getting much betting value on Notre Dame over the course of the season. You're taking the worst of it by even trying. Imagine seeing a roulette wheel with 55% black and 45% reds...and you keep trying to pick spots to bet on red. Dumb! I've made a living as a gambler for decades because I never allow myself to take the worst of it. That's true at the poker tables. That's true at blackjack tables (which I don't play much any more because of all the changes in how the game is dealt). That's particularly true in the sportsbooks. If you bet on public teams, you'll win occasionally but you'll lose a lot more than you win.
As we get further into the season I'll talk some more about other public teams on the college and pro boards. We already have a situation where the media is hyping the same handful of teams over and over again in the BCS race. I'm confident those teams will hit about 47-48% against the number this year as a group...probably with one team playing great and the others losing money. I'm not going to get too specific in this first college article of the year because I may be fading some teams in particular on this first big Saturday of action.
I will say this about a few of the major conferences:
I think at least one team is getting way too much hype in the Big Ten, and their lines will be off by 3-7 points in the first month.
I think at least three teams are getting way too much hype in the Big 12, and their lines will be off by 5-8 points over the first half of the season.
I have strong opinions about the two new teams joining the SEC, Texas A&M and Missouri. But, I'm not going to give any hints here as to whether I think they'll offer value as bets or fades. Maybe you'll find out next week when Missouri hosts Georgia and Texas A&M hosts Florida.
I think one big name team in the Pac 12 is going to be a big disappointment, as well as at least one of the big name new head coaches.
You make money at Las Vegas sportsbooks by betting against public sentiment. Don't you dare forget that during the course of this upcoming college football season.
Because the public bets a lot of football, I'm personally a very action-minded player on Saturdays and Sundays. That betting style won't work for most of you. You don't have the bankroll or the risk tolerance. That's why I only release here on this website the exact same plays I'm betting the STRONGEST. You can purchase my very best plays for a low price every game day. It's like standing in line with me at the Wynn or Caesar's Palace. You can sign up for the full season up front at discounted rates if you're ready to make a longterm commitment.
If you have any questions, call my office at 1-888-536-8880. I probably won't be able to talk to you directly because it's going to get very busy this weekend. One of my representatives will be happy to help you out.
How much money have you lost over the years betting on the likes of Notre Dame? Maybe they'll cover vs. Navy and maybe they won't. I'll tell you this. You probably won't be getting the best of it by betting on the Irish all season. Stop taking the worst of it with your own picks...make sure you're GETTING THE BEST OF IT with TONY SALINAS!
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