I Told You to Fade Superpowers!
Tony Salinas: I Told You to Fade Superpowers!
A week ago at this time, I strongly encouraged you to fade college basketball superpowers in their conference tournaments. I told you they'd be overpriced because of public interest, lacking motivation because the Big Dance is much more important than a conference tournament, and dealing with fired up opponents who had more to play for and a chance to make headlines.
Here's a bit of what happened:
KENTUCKY, the number one team in the country...one that was supposedly so good NOBODY was going to have a chance to beat them until the Final Four of the Big Dance...went 0-3 against the spread in SEC tournament. They played very poorly against an unimpressive LSU squad. They barely got by Florida in the semifinals. Then, they lost OUTRIGHT to Vanderbilt in the championship game. Note that Vandy is a #5 seed this week in the NCAA's, and Florida is a #7. Kentucky basically played dead even with those guys over 80 minutes.
SYRACUSE, the number two team in the country...couldn't even reach the finals of the Big East tournament. They snuck by Connecticut in the quarterfinals (the Orange got a bye into that round), then lost to Cincinnati in the semi's. That's 0-2 against the spread for Syracuse, and 0-5 ATS for the two best teams in the country. Note that Connecticut is a #9 seed this week in the NCAA's, while Cincinnati is a #6 seed. Syracuse was in a dead heat with that lackluster caliber over 80 minutes.
NORTH CAROLINA is one of the most popular betting teams in the country. And, they were the top seed in the ACC tourney, one of the most storied events in all of sports. Carolina covered their first game against Maryland (just barely), but then almost lost outright to NC State in the semifinals before losing to Florida State in the finals. That's 1-2 against the spread, and two nailbiters against teams seeded #11 and #3 this week in the NCAA's.
DUKE is always right up there with North Carolina in the public mindset. Squares love betting on Duke, especially when they think the prices are cheap! Duke went 0-2 against the spread in the ACC tournament, getting dispatched by Florida State in the semifinals.
Now, it's not true that every single highly regarded team struggled over the weekend. You had to be impressed with what Michigan State did in the Big Ten tournament. But, in terms of GETTING THE BEST OF IT with a wagering strategy over a sampling of games...this approach sure did the job. I've always said you're getting about 7-5 or 8-5 the best of it when betting against big name teams like Kentucky or North Carolina in marquee TV games that the public is going to bet. It's as true now as it was a few decades ago.
And, you know what? It's going to be true in the Big Dance too? Some of the reasons have changed, but my fading the superpower theory is likely to make you money between now and the championships. Here's why:
The public STILL loves betting the superpowers, and one lost weekend isn't going to dissuade them. Remember, the public always thinks the lines are too low in neutral site games because they don't follow the sport closely enough. A lot of "famous' teams are about to seem very affordable when they're not. Oddsmakers have already factors in public sentiment and made the lines a tad high. If the public comes in hard on a game, the public will move even further in the wrong direction.
Powerhouse teams will now bring full focus, after getting caught looking ahead this past weekend. But, now they start to fee the PRESSURE. They play tight. They get nervous with a lead. They realize they have everything to lose whenever they take the floor...and they're matched up against a team with nothing to lose. Underdogs can play free and loose as underdogs against superpowers. Bracket favorites start to show fear. This leads to turnovers, jumpers that come up a little short, and foul problems that come from being a bit too panicky on defense.
I should also mention that college basketball's landscape is a lot more compact than it used to be. In the past great teams had played together for a few years, and often had NBA caliber talent on the roster. Right now, if there's NBA talent, then the team hasn't played together long because of the one-and-done rule (this describes many of the top seeds in the Dance). The teams that have played together long are now the Cinderella's who can pull off surprises. The top teams just aren't that much better than everyone else (which is another reason they struggled this past weekend!).
I'm not going to talk about specific teams here in my web article because I need to protect plays for my clients. Sure, some of the go-against teams are obvious. But, it might be best to wait until they play their second games because the #15 and #16 dogs are so bad they have no chance to compete. I can tell you I'll be fading a lot of respected "names"this week...and it won't just be the few teams we've talked about today.
You can purchase my full postseason package here at the website, or by calling 1-888-536-8880. My clients always get the exact same games I'm betting the BIGGEST myself. You can start building your bankroll for the brackets Monday Night in the NBA. Then we'll have NCAA, NIT, CBI, and Insider games to look at starting Tuesday Night.You know you're going to join the party now that the most important games of the year are about to be played. Don't take the worst of it by hoping big favorites get the money for you. Be sure you're GETTING THE BEST OF IT all through championship night with TONY SALINAS!
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