Carolina on a Rampage Since Loss to Duke
Tony Salinas: Carolina on a Rampage Since Loss to Duke
I spend a lot of time warning you to be wary of overpriced big name teams. But, the one time you have to be careful fading the top programs is when they have a chip on their shoulder. The best teams will often go on a "take no prisoners" tear when it's time to send a message. You've seen the Miami Heat do that in the NBA in recent days. You've seen North Carolina do it in college basketball ever since losing at the buzzer to Duke.
North Carolina was FURIOUS after blowing the game against hated archrival Duke. They had a double digit lead fairly late, and simply let the game get away from them. Carolina figured they had it won...so they didn't focus on playing smart offensively in the final moments, and they didn't guard Duke's shooters very aggressively.
Look at what's happened since:
North Carolina (-9) beat Virginia 70-52. That's who the Tar Heels play again today, but this time on the road. Virginia is a very sold team this year that has a great chance to play spoiler in the NCAA Tournament. Carolina squashed them like a bug a few days after the Duke game.
North Carolina (-5) won at Miami of Florida 73-64. This was a potential danger spot on the road against a team that won at Duke. This was also a letdown situation since Carolina played so well in the rout of Virginia. I can't say that Carolina played 40 great minutes. But, they did close very well and covered the Vegas spread.
North Carolina (-11) beat Clemson 74-52. Basically a replay of the Virginia game in terms of Vegas spread and how everything played out. This is a team on a roll.
North Carolina (-7) won at NC State 84-72. Every road game in the ACC is dangerous, particularly when road favorites are visiting longtime rivals. State has been on the bubble for the NCAA Tournament for awhile. They blew a 20-point lead at Duke, then failed to knock off Florida State. THIS was a make-or-break game for the home team...and they broke! North Carolina made it 4-0 straight up and ATS since the Duke loss with a double digit win.
That brings us to today's rematch with Virginia. The Cavaliers are either a lock or a strong bubble team depending on who you talk to. They're only 8-5 in the ACC, but that's good enough for fourth place. It would be a stunner for the committee to only take three ACC teams! A home upset of North Carolina should make a Dance invite official.
So, who do you take? The North Carolina team that's been kicking butt and taking names for two weeks? Or, the fired up home dog in a revenge spot that's trying to lock in a Dance bid? You regulars know that...most of the time...I'm going to be on the home dog in a game like this because of line value. But, as I've told you many times in the past, it's never smart to jump in front of a freight train! You want to go against overpriced favorites who are likely to be flat or disinterested. Is this when Carolina falls back to earth?
You'll have to purchase my Saturday card here at the website to see if I played this game for my clients. Personally, I'm an action-heavy player with my own opinions here in Las Vegas. But, paying customers only get the games I'm betting the BIGGEST myself. I'm not going to ask you to play half the board. I'm going to give you a small handful of the very best betting options for an affordable price.
You get the most bang for your buck by signing up for the rest of the season. You can do that online or by calling my handicapping office at 1-888-536-8880. I'm not available to talk to clients on weekends because the basketball schedules are so busy. One of my representatives will be happy to help you.
There are definitely some high priced teams on the weekend schedule who AREN'T playing like freight trains recently. There are definitely some live dogs who will be motivated to play their best games of the year Saturday or Sunday. And, I've got my eye on a few small favorites too who have been underestimated by the market in similar situations all year.
It's very important that you close out the month of February on a high note. Don't take the worst of it by betting your own leans. Make sure you're GETTING THE BEST OF IT with the biggest plays from TONY SALINAS!
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