New England's Always Expensive
Tony Salinas: New England's Always Expensive
I can't say I was surprised when the New England Patriots were posted as touchdown favorites over the Baltimore Ravens in the AFC Championship game. What did surprise me was the number of bettors in Las Vegas with short memories!
You could tell here in the sportsbooks that many local bettors had completely forgotten about New England's recent poinstread woes in the playoffs. They looked great vs. Denver last week. They played well down the stretch. That's all that matters. New England's great. The lines have to be high when New England plays.
Well, let's look at that a second. Here are New England's recent playoff results.
New England (-14) beat Denver 45-10
New England (-9.5) lost to the New York Jets 28-21
New England (-3.5) lost to Baltimore 33-14
New England (-13.5) beat Jacksonville 31-20
New England (-14) beat San Diego 21-12
New England (-12.5) lost to the NY Giants 17-14
That takes us all the way back to the 2007-2008 season (remember that the Pats missed the playoffs in the 2008-2009 season because Tom Brady was lost for the season with an early injury). New England's pointspread cover last week over Denver was their first since 2007!
Yes, they crushed Tim Tebow...who can't even throw the ball and was playing with an injury much of the way (not that it mattered). They're not playing Tim Tebow this week. They're playing a class of team that's given them some trouble in recent seasons...as well as the "type" of team in terms of quality defense and a running attack.
Let's look at the spread margins from those prior three seasons:
Missed the Jets game by 16.5 points
Missed the Ravens game by 22.5 points
Missed the Jaguars game by 2.5 points
Missed the Chargers game by 5 points
Missed the Giants game by 15.5 points
That's three double digit non-covers. That's four misses by more than a field goal. That's a 2-3 straight up record in five games as favorites...four as big favorites. Why is New England still getting so much respect?!
I do understand that there are some extenuating circumstances in the mix. Brady played hurt in their Super Bowl year, and that limited his ability to put up really big numbers. Still, he can't put up big numbers if he's not on the field. The Jets kept him off the field last year. The Ravens are capable of doing the same thing this time around, just like they did two years ago.
I will say that I wasn't impressed with the Ravens last week. I wrote up the Houston-Baltimore game for you last Sunday because of my connections to Texas. Houston did have a problem getting points on the board, but the Texans could have won that game if not for turnover differential. If Baltimore comes out timid like that again this week...playing not to lose instead of playing to win...then anyone rooting for the Ravens is going to be in trouble. New England takes no mercy against opponents like that.
Who will I be taking in the AFC Championship game? History would suggest TONY SALINAS would be on the underdog given the pointspread histories I just outlined for you. But, history also shows that TONY SALINAS likes to swerve and take an affordable favorite if he's lost faith in an underdog. Baltimore just might have caused me to lose faith with that intimidated effort from their offense last week.
You can purchase my HIGH ROLLER picks in both the AFC and NFC games right here at the website with your credit card. My clients always get the exact same games I'm betting the biggest myself. Last Sunday I went 4-0, and I'm fired up and ready to do it again with my CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP SLAM. I've bet both of these games big already here in the Las Vegas sportsbooks. Be sure to check out my top basketball plays too. If you have any questions about my service call the office at 1-888-536-8880.
We have some interesting stories in the NFL today. New England has been overrated for the past few years...but Baltimore has been an annual disappointment for just as long. The New York Giants are trying to replay their Cinderella story of a few years ago. How often does the SAME team pull that off so quickly? San Francisco is trying to win a championship with a rookie head coach and a bad quarterback.
It will be very easy for you to take the worst of it with bad guesses in these games. I've been around the block a few times. I've been winning bets on championship football games in the NFL for longer than many of you have been alive. Be sure that YOU are GETTING THE BEST OF IT on Championship Sunday with TONY SALINAS!
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