Free Points in College Hoops

Tony Salinas: Free Points in College Hoops

College basketball is back, which means its time for me to remind you NOT to race out and bet all the big name teams! Las Vegas lines are always stacked against the major programs and top teams in the rankings because oddsmakers know that's where the public money is going to go.

If you want to win, you want to bet against the public...just like the oddsmakers do. If they give themselves two or three free points because they know who the public is going to support, you're going to GET THE BEST OF IT by putting those same points to work for you.

This is really important in November because Vegas lines often have even MORE than two or three free points accounted for in the projected blowouts.

  • If a big name team is supposed to be favored by 3-6 points in a good neutral site matchup in a tournament, maybe the line goes up only a point or so because there will be some betting on a talented underdog.
  • If that same team is supposed to be laying 10-12 points or so at home, then we're looking at 2-3 points because it's very hard for the public to bet on a road team that's supposed to lose by double digits.
  • If that same team is supposed to be laying 17-20 points at home against a cupcake, then the line may be 21-25 points instead. The public loves betting on blowouts because they think the best teams can win by 30 or 40 points on command. And, those teams DO win by that much just enough to make it worse! The powers will win a couple by 30-40, then three by 10-16....and GETTING THE BEST OF IT goes to the dog players even though the public got to enjoy a couple of blowouts.
  • You'll sometimes see lines even higher than this in a sport like college basketball that doesn't have much pre-conference parity. Oddsmakers have admitted that these games may be stacked as much as 6-9 points against the favorite.

Here's a list of the top 15 teams in the Preseason AP poll. To me, this is a list of teams you'll generally want to AVOID in the months of November and December. Maybe a few will break through and just crush everyone in sight. And, maybe you're smart enough to figure out in advance who those marauders are going to be. History suggests its best to leave these teams alone if you're a picky player who only bets a few games a day...or to bet the other way if you're an action-lover who tries to bet value wherever it's available on the board.

AP TOP 15
1...North Carolina
2...Kentucky
3...Ohio State
4...Connecticut
5...Syracuse
6...Duke
7...Vanderbilt
8...Florida
9...Louisville
10...Pittsburgh
11...Memphis
12...Baylor
13...Kansas
14...Xavier
15...Wisconsin

That's mostly a list of the usual suspects. Though, Vanderbilt is a lot higher than normal...so pay close attention to them. Kansas is a lot lower than normal, but still getting enough respect to earn a ranking. Does that mean this is a team that's going to start slowly because of new personnel? Kansas down at 13 means something. It's your job to figure out what.

My top basketball selections will be available every game day here at the website. I'll start out slow because the schedule is starting out slow. But, you can bet that any selection I post is a big one. Remember, my clients only get the exact same games I'm betting the BIGGEST myself. You want leans, go somewhere else.

I won't miss the NBA at all this month. Referees have ruined that sport anyway. There's big money to be made in college basketball...and that will supplement everything we're making in college and pro football. Don't forget that we have an NFL game this Thursday Night when Oakland visits San Diego. Information on football-basketball combination packages is available at 1-888-536-8880.

I'm not going to tell you which specific ranked teams I think are going to be most overrated. I'll be making good use of that information over the next six to eight weeks. I can tell you that at least five teams listed above are at least five spots too high (maybe 10 spots too high!). But, be aware that I expect one of those teams in the 11-15 range to catch some people flat-footed. I'm probably most excited about five or six off-the-radar teams scattered across the board that I'm convinced are going to hit the ground running this year because of returning talent and smart recruiting.

If there's value on the board, TONY SALINAS is going to find it. Fading overpriced programs will help you GET THE BEST OF IT. Betting the same picks as TONY SALINAS will make you A HIGH ROLLER!

19
Aug

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