NFL Totals Dropping
Tony Salinas: NFL Totals Dropping
After all the hype in the first few weeks of the NFL season about how nobody knew how to tackle or play defense any more, you might be surprised to learn that about two-thirds of pro football games have gone UNDER their Las Vegas totals the past three weeks.
The Sunday Night and Monday Night games you just watched on TV finished of a 4-9 week for Unders, with Dallas-Philadelphia landing on 41 against a total of 48, and San Diego-Kansas City making it to 43 in overtime against a total of 44 (four points under in regulation).
Here's what's happened the last there weeks in the NFL:
Week Six: 3-9-1 to the Under
Week Seven: 6-7 to the Under
Week Eight: 4-9 to the Under
3-Weeks Combined: 13-25-1 to the Under, fully 66% Unders.
It's also worth nothing that it took fluke points to get some of the Over games this past Sunday beyond their threshold!
*There were two non-offensive touchdowns in New Orleans-St. Louis. Take those away and we're looking at a 24-14 finish against a total of 48.
*There were two non-offensive touchdowns in Detroit-Denver. Take those away and we're looking at a 31-10 finish against a total of 43.
*There were two non-offensive touchdowns in Cincinnati-Seattle. Take those away and we're looking at a 20-12 finish against a total of 37.
The only 'clean' Over was the 30-27 game between Arizona and Baltimore. And, even THAT game was fully of cheap points! Arizona scored 27 points on just 207 yards thanks to a punt return TD and easy points off of turnovers.
Hopefully you haven't been banging your heads against the wall trying to force Over bets on a card where they didn't belong. I know many casual gamblers who figured they had struck a gold mine when they're Overs were hitting early in the season. The media just fed into their frenzy…telling them that great quarterbacks were unstoppable…that the league wants fantasy players to see big numbers…and that the offseason lockout made it hard for defenses to shut down 'modern' offenses.
Now everyone's talking about how few good quarterbacks there are…and how ESPN keeps getting stuck with games where the offenses kick the ball around all night.
There are several reasons why scoring is down of late:
*Injuries have taken some starters out of the lineup.
*A few teams made changes to backups, only to find out those guys really were terrible.
*There have been more divisional rivalry games of late, and those tend to skew Under (all four this past weekend went Under…in games played at Tennessee, Houston, Philadelphia, and Kansas City).
*The weather is starting to get cooler, which may have influenced some games this past weekend.
*Defenses made some adjustments on what wasn't working in the first month, taking away many of the big plays that had been happening (not all, but many).
*Wear and tear is taking its toll on offenses who know they must pace themselves for a long 16-game season. Once teams start grinding, they run clock and get the games over with faster.
*Some of the very best quarterbacks have had byes over the last few weeks (though even Tom Brady didn't play well in Pittsburgh when he returned from a bye).
I don't release many totals to my clients because everyone who signs up gets only the plays I'm betting the BIGGEST myself. Usually those are team sides rather than totals because of Vegas betting limits. But, I can assure you I'm personally playing a lot of totals…in first half, second half, and full game varieties. You should be looking to do the same thing. I'm an action-heavy bettor, and I can't possibly ask customers to engage with that kind of weekly exposure. I hope you'll consider playing my best games, along with your favorite totals. If you're being smart on your totals, this will very much be worth your while.
My seasonal rate is very affordable. And, you can also try out my college or pro service on game days. Selections go up a few hours before kickoff. Don't forget that we have football EVERY night this week thanks to ESPN and the MAC. If you have any questions, call my office at 1-888-536-8880. I'll probably be at a Vegas sportsbooks when you call, or in a poker room playing Hold-em (I'm a professional gambler). One of my representatives will be happy to help you out.
The public took a bath last week playing favorites and Overs. That was true in both college and pro football. The guys I talk to behind the counter tell me it was one of their best weeks in years. If you took the worst of it last week…sign up with TONY SALINAS so you can GET THE BEST OF IT the rest of the season!
'GETTING THE BEST OF IT' is an ongoing series presented by VegasSportsMasters.com and legendary high roller TONY SALINAS. For more information on TONY'S handicapping packages, call 1-888-536-8880.
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