Tony Salinas: America’s Team Creates Quandary
Las Vegas gamblers love to bet on the Dallas Cowboys…and they love to bet on the New England Patriots. Who are they going to take when those two teams meet Sunday afternoon in a TV showcase?
This is going to be one of the most heavily bet games this year in Las Vegas. That was obvious early in the week when it was already drawing a lot of attention. The public usually waits until the weekend to place their bets. But, a game like this will generate some traffic every day…and then REALLY explode on game day when everyone and their brother heads to their local book to put some money down.
From my experience with games like this, I can tell you that most of the “smart money” is going to be on the underdog. Longtime bettors who have been around the block a time or two (or four) prefer to have the better defense. New England’s defense has been horrible this year. So, we know that a big part of the equation Sunday is going to be “informed” money on Dallas.
What’s the public going to do?
If the public decides they can’t pass up America’s Team as a medium-sized underdog…then Vegas books are going to be overloaded on the Cowboys…and will be desperately rooting for New England to win big. This could be trouble for the books. There’s a feeling here in town that when sharps and squares are betting the same way…LOOK OUT! It’s usually the right side and sportsbooks take a hit.
But, if the public decides they can’t resist New England at around a touchdown…then sports books will probably have relatively balanced action on the game…and will earn a nice chunk of change with the vigorish. At least a dozen times this week, I saw somebody in the media saying that New England’s average victory margin during their current home win streak is around 17 points. A spread around -7 looks very cheap when TV pundits keep suggesting that the Patriots always win by 17.
I’ve been thinking about this game long and hard because I love fading the public and taking free points…but this is a game that’s far from obvious in terms of public sentiment. It’s even possible the public splits right down the middle when it’s all said and done. I’ve been watching the line through the weekend…and I’ll only make a move for my clients if I see real value.
Remember, my online clients only get the exact same games I’m betting the biggest myself. I’m an action heavy player personally, playing a lot of first quarter, first half, and second half bets on my own card. I couldn’t ask clients to take on that level of risk on any given day. If you sign up with TONY SALINAS, you get only my very strongest plays. Maybe Dallas-New England won’t qualify. Maybe it will.
I can’t go into specifics about my card. But, I will take a second to list the teams I believe will be the most “public” teams this season based on how the season is unfolding.
CURRENT “PUBLIC” TEAMS
MAY BE “PUBLIC” TEAMS SOON
Pittsburgh if they get back in Super Bowl form
Philadelphia if they stop turning the ball over
NY Jets if they fix their problems
Those last three teams were “public” teams when the season started, but they’ve hurt bettors so much that they’ve backed off. Dumb money WANTS to bet on the Jets every time they’re favored…and dumb money was all over Philadelphia in the first month.
Should I have put Buffalo on that list? It may be a long time before the public believes in Buffalo.
You’ll beat the oddsmakers over the long haul by taking free points whenever they’re given. If you’d like some help finding those free points, you can purchase my top plays right here at the website every game day…or sign up in my office by calling 1-888-536-8880. Don’t bet like your buddies and take the worst of it. Bet with TONY SALINAS and start GETTING THE BEST OF IT!
“GETTING THE BEST OF IT” is an ongoing series presented by VegasSportsMasters.com and legendary high roller TONY SALINAS. For more information on TONY’S handicapping packages, call 1-888-536-8880.
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