Will Okie State Be Overpriced
Will Okie State Be Overpriced in 2011?
You longtime readers know that I'm always on the lookout for overpriced teams that are offering up free points to gamblers courageous enough to fade them. The Oklahoma State Cowboys have a lot of characteristics that might make them a qualifying team in 2011.
*They're coming off a big year that received a lot of media attention. The public loves betting on teams that ESPN keeps raving about. This often adds 2-3 points in the line that don't deserve to be there.
*They're highly regarded in the polls. I talked about this not too long ago in a recent article. Anyone in the top 10 of the national polls at the beginning of a season is going to get respect in the market.
*They're returning a highly regarded quarterback. Same story here. The public loves betting on big time quarterbacks whether you're talking about the colleges or the pro's. Brandon Weeden of Oklahoma State had big stats last year, and will probably have big stats again this year.
*They're a team that LOVES running up the score. The public just can't help themselves with a team like this. They figure the spread's irrelevant because the high octane offense is just going to keep scoring all game long.
So far, we're looking at what may be one of the most IDEAL candidates for an overpriced team in 2011!
What happened last week? Oklahoma State (-38) beat Louisiana Lafayette 61-34
They played like a top ten team. Weeden passed for almost 400 yards. The coach kept piling up the points all night long. Those are all things the public loves to see. Yet…OKLAHOMA STATE DIDN'T COVER THE SPREAD!
The Cowboys were favored by 38, played GREAT, but missed the inflated spread by 11 points in a 27-point victory.
So, this is something I'm going to keep my eye on for sure. But, I am aware that Oklahoma State fared very well as a small and medium favorite last year. In fact, from September 18th of 2010 through the end of the season, the Cowboys were 7-0 ATS as favorites of a field goal or more. Maybe they're not going to cover spreads in the 30's because their defensive backups won't play well in garbage time. Do I want to buck them at smaller spreads, like we see Thursday Night vs. Arizona in the ESPN game?
Sept 18: Oklahoma State (-7) beat Tulsa 65-28
October 8: Oklahoma State (-24) beat Louisiana Lafayette 54-28
October 30: Oklahoma State (-3.5) beat Kansas State 24-14
November 6: Oklahoma State (-10) beat Baylor 55-28
November 13: Oklahoma State (-4) beat Texas 33-16
November 20: Oklahoma State (-24) beat Kansas 48-14
December 29: Oklahoma State (-4.5) beat Arizona 36-10
The bottom game on that list is a 26-point bowl win at a neutral site over the team they're playing at home Thursday Night. The home games on that list were the 26-point win over Lafayette, the 27-point win over Baylor, and the 37-point win over Tulsa.
Thursday's spread of Oklahoma State -16 doesn't seem overpriced when you look at that list. I'll have to give this game a little more thought before posting my selection. You'll be able to get my Thursday football right here at the website in the afternoon. You'll get my very best shot from Arizona-Oklahoma State and the New Orleans-Green Bay game that kicks off the NFL season. I tend to be very action heavy with sides, totals, first half bets, second half bets, and the like out here in Vegas. My clients only get the exact same games I'm betting the BIGGEST myself. I do expect to have something for you Thursday afternoon.
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