Revenge Pays Off

Tony Salinas: Revenge Pays Off

Both of the winners in my Thursday Night "Shocker Parlay" had revenge on their minds. This is something you should be looking for when Week One of the college season continues on Saturday.

Let me review...

The first play was Bowling Green (+6) at Idaho. This isn't any sort of regular rivalry or anything. But, the two teams faced off in the Humanitarian Bowl after the 2009 season. I hope you watched that one, because it was a real thriller. Bowling Green Scored with 35 seconds left to take a 42-35 lead. Idaho drove the field in 28 seconds to score a TD. Instead of kicking the PAT to force overtime, the Vandals went for two and made it. Final Score: Idaho 43, Bowling Green 42.

Many of the players from that game are no longer on the field for either team. But, Bowling Green coach Dave Clawson was there. That was his rookie season. You know he was heartbroken about the loss, and furious at himself for allowing Idaho to rally back and win late. Do you think...maybe...he showed game films of that fourth quarter to his players over the past summer? Do you think...maybe...he showed Idaho's celebration over and over again?

Bowling Green was going to show up with peak intensity for this game to avenge a loss for their coach and their university. They also had all of the following going for them:

  • Experience at quarterback, while Idaho was breaking in a relative newcomer.

  • More returning starters, as Idaho only had three starters back on offense.

  • No concerns about an odd road trip. The Humanitarian Bowl was played in Boise. The fact that this game was played in Idaho made it even more important.

  • No respect from the Vegas line! Kids read the pointspreads in the newspaper. The Falcons had to be mad they were underdogs of almost a TD to a team they knew they could beat.

Bowling Green would use their motivational and experience edges to jump to a 30-7 halftime lead. They would win total yardage 478-280. The inexperienced Idaho offense suffered three turnovers, while visiting Bowling Green never lost the ball once.

This wasn't a "pure" revenge play because BG had so much going for them. Revenge PLUS those other edges led to a blowout.

My second play in the "Shocker Parlay" was Western Kentucky (+18) vs. Kentucky. Western had revenge on its mind after getting humiliated last year 63-28. That was the most points Kentucky had scored in a game in several years. You knew Western was furious about how all of that played out.

Combine that with a "David vs. Goliath" situation inside the state of Kentucky...where the little guy was going to get fired up while the big guy could care less...and you already had the ingredients for a live dog.

Other factors:

  • Kentucky had an inexperienced offensive backfield, with Morgan Newton taking over the quarterback position. Whenever a team lacks experience AND motivation, they become a very shaky favorite. If you watched this game on ESPNU once some of the others had ended Thursday Night, you saw Newton played very poorly outside of a long run on a scramble.

  • Kentucky has such a tough SEC schedule this year that there's just no way they're going to be anywhere near peak performance against an opponent like this. Do you think the players spent the summer thinking about Western Kentucky? No, they had Florida, Tennessee, and other SEC rivals on their minds.

In both cases I had more experienced teams, more experienced quarterbacks, AND revenge going for me. I think it's clear that Bowling Green and Western Kentucky were a lot more fired up and focused than Idaho and Kentucky were when it was all said and done.

Now, I don't want you to blindly bet any revenge team this Saturday. You'll GET THE BEST OF IT by looking for games where revenge is part of a big collection of edges. And, I'll likely have a big play or two that have nothing to do with revenge because other edges are so dramatic. Don't put blinders. Wear better glasses!

I hope you'll be with me tonight for TCU-Baylor and all weekend long for my very best plays. I've mentioned before that I'm very action minded with my personal betting in Las Vegas sportsbooks. I couldn't possibly ask clients to play that many games. If you sign up for service, you get only the games that I'm betting the biggest myself. My very strongest opinions. Games like Bowling Green and Western Kentucky!

If you have any questions about my service call the office at 1-888-536-8880. Make sure you're GETTING THE BEST OF IT this weekend with TONY SALINAS!

22
Aug

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