Ranked College Teams Overrated
Ranked College Teams Overrated
One of the smartest betting strategies you can use in Las Vegas is to fade highly ranked teams early in the season. You won't win every game…but you'll be getting the best of it over the long haul because oddsmakers hand away free points whenever these teams take the field.
Keep in mind that:
Oddsmakers do a lot of their preseason 'research' in college football simply by listening to ESPN and reading the same newsstand publications you and I get.
The public loves betting ranked teams, particularly those who are being hyped by the media.
Vegas lines at the beginning of the season are posted by oddsmakers, then bet by the public.
The media is often WRONG about how good teams are supposed to be!
It's a perfect storm that creates line value all over the card. Opening numbers are soft. The public makes them softer. And, that softness can be traced to misinformation put out by the mainstream media because they're trying to hype their telecasts rather than tell you the truth.
Remember how Florida wasn't going to have any troubles transitioning to a new quarterback after Tim Tebow left? The media said they be fine because they had so much talent all over the roster. They weren't fine were they? Remember how Texas was going to pick up with Garrett Gilbert right where they left off with Colt McCoy. Yeah right. Play in the BCS championship game one year, don't even go to a bowl the next. Florida was #4 in the preseason AP rankings last year. Texas was #5.
How about the two teams who would eventually play for the national championship? Neither Auburn nor Oregon were in the preseason top 10. Auburn rose to the title from a start at #22. Oregon was #11.
Here's a quick look at the current AP top ten heading into this week's season openers…along with reasons why they may be overrated this season.
#1 Oklahoma: consistently overrated, particularly whenever they play anybody who's any good on the road. You can pick your spots with this team against bad defenses. Last year's team opened at #7 and even struggled at home against Utah State and Air Force.
#2 Alabama: breaking in a new quarterback. How can you put a team at #2 in the country when you don't even know how good the quarterback is going to be?
#3 Oregon: off field distractions may cause problems. Plus, they'll have a target on their backs all year after running up the score so much. Complacency often sets in after a big rise in national prominence.
#4 LSU: if you've been reading the newspapers you know why this team may have trouble staying focused early in the season.
#5 Boise State: it's easier to catch these guys napping in league play when they're monster favorites. They impressed me last year in their opener at Virginia Tech. They may not be a top five team in terms of depth. Fade them in their flat spots, not in their statement games.
#6 Florida State: for the life of me I can't understand why everyone's ranking this team so high. They weren't all that great last year (winning the weaker half of the ACC) and they have an erratic quarterback.
#7 Stanford: I love Andrew Luck, but I don't like the mindset of this program entering the season. It's easy for 'finesse' teams to rest on their laurels once they've accomplished something. Losing head coach Jim Harbaugh is going to hit them hard even if it won't be felt as much this year because of Luck. This is definitely a team that can be had when they lose their focus.
#8 Texas A&M: Everyone seems to think A&M is the new Texas. Well, Texas knew how to tackle! The Aggies aren't a top 10 team until they learn how to play defense. So many people were saying this team was underrated that now they've become overrated. 'Pretty good' doesn't mean top eight in the country.
#9 Oklahoma State: It's easy to win college games when your quarterback is in his late 20's. Here's another Big 12 team with a great offense and no defense. I've been around a long time. I know how to win bets against teams like this with the right opposing offenses. Three Big 12 teams in the top nine? Seriously? I'm from Texas and I know that's not right.
#10 Nebraska: I definitely love this defense. And, I'm sure the Cornhuskers want to make a statement as they enter the Big 10. Can you be a top 10 team when you run a high school offense? Note that Wisconsin has the #10 spot in the USA Today poll, while Nebraska is 11th over there. It will be fun to see these two square off in Nebraska's first ever Big 10 game in a few weeks.
I don't want you to think I'm saying ALL of these teams are going to fall apart like Florida and Texas did last year. You're certainly looking at some BCS teams there, and possibly the next national champion. My point is that at least one or two are going to be A LOT worse than expected. And, the others are likely to be overpriced as a group over the first month of the season. HIGH ROLLERS are looking to win about 54-55% of their bets by exploiting value whenever they find it and letting the results take care of themselves. Media hype is creating a window of opportunity where this is GOING TO HAPPEN!
Most of you will be fighting the urge to lay points with all the 'great' teams you've been reading and hearing about the past few weeks. I hope you'll fight that urge so hard that you'll go the other way in some of those games. Why lay 2-3 extra points (or more) when you can put those points in your hip pocket and get the best of the numbers?
I've got great rates for the football season. If you're not a HIGH ROLLER now, you'll be one very soon if you sign up with TONY SALINAS! If you prefer going day-by-day to try things out, be sure you check out my plays this Thursday here at the website. I follow the UNLV program very closely, so I'll probably have something in that UNLV-Wisconsin game on ESPN. If you have any questions, call the office at 1-888-536-8880.
Stop taking the worst of it by letting the media pollute your thinking. Start GETTING THE BEST OF IT with TONY SALINAS!
'GETTING THE BEST OF IT' is an ongoing series presented by VegasSportsMasters.com and legendary high roller TONY SALINAS. For more information on TONY'S handicapping packages, call 1-888-536-8880.
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