Pressure On Newcomers

With handicapping legend Tony Salinas


There have been a lot of headlines the past few days about players changing teams in both Major League Baseball and the National Football League.

I can assure you right now that you'll be GETTING THE BEST OF IT by fading teams (and particularly pitchers) who just changed locales.

Now, I'm not saying that they're all going to be disasters. In fact, most or all of them may work out over the long haul. But, we're not betting the long haul right after the acquisition. We're betting that there will be an awkward transition period where the new player will be under tremendous pressure.

Did you see how badly Ubaldo Jiminez pitched this last Saturday Night for Colorado? Just the RUMORS that he would be traded caused big problems. Now that he knows Cleveland has acquired him specifically to help them win the AL Central, he's going to be very nervous in his first few starts.

Also, and this is perhaps most important to Las Vegas sports bettors, he's likely to be overpriced because of all the media coverage.

*Jiminez just got hyped for a week as an impact pitcher who could be a difference-maker for a top contender (many thought the Yankees would get him).

*Jiminez was presented as a 'savior' who would be the immediate ace of the Cleveland staff.

*The public loves betting on guys like this!

Maybe he'll be fine. My point today is that the bulk of new faces will underachieve inflated expectations when they first take the field. You won't win every single bet by fading the changes. You'll win more than you lose. That's what GETTING THE BEST OF IT is all about.

Some examples to remember down the road:

*The media is going to hype Tom Brady-to-Chad Ochocinco beyond belief between now and the start of the regular season. The addition of Albert Haynesworth will kick things up even further if the troublemaker can ever get in shape and get in the lineup. There may come a point down the road where New England is actually as good as people are expecting at the outset. In those first few games with the new players, the pressure and attention is more likely to be a negative.

*I saw some pundits at ESPN saying that the Philadelphia Eagles were already in the Super Bowl thanks to all of their recent moves. This is why pundits work for ESPN. They'd go broke if they had to bet their opinions in Las Vegas! Everyone will be expecting dominance from the Eagled right out of the gate, particularly their voluminous fan base. I expect the Vegas lines to be about 2-3 points too high as a result.

*There's not room to list all the recent baseball changes. Suffice to say…starting pitchers will probably struggle at first, particularly if they're going to a worse pitching environment in terms of their home stadium or the quality of defense behind them. Hitters are likely to press and go through a slump as they try to impress their new teammates and ticket buyers. Remember how long it took for Carl Crawford to start hitting in Boston? What a great example for today's them. Boston is a great team, but they started the year 2-10 because of all the pressure! Let's not forget about bullpen guys too. New relief pitchers are likely to have some very shaky innings.

Personally, I loved seeing all the trades and free agent signings last week. Those dollar signs you saw in the newspaper were also dollar signs for smart bettors. My clients and I are going to make a lot of money in the coming weeks by fading all of last week's hype.

You can join the fun by signing up for my personal service. I've got great seasonal rates available here at the website. If you want to try things out for awhile, you can purchase game day releases with your credit card. Baseball is up daily. The NFL Preseason starts a week from Thursday. If you have any questions, call my handicapping office at 1-888-536-8880.

I hit around 65% in the month of July in baseball…and the football season is now imminent. Make sure you're GETTING THE BEST OF IT with TONY SALINAS!

'GETTING THE BEST OF IT' is an ongoing series presented by and legendary high roller TONY SALINAS. For more information on TONY'S handicapping packages, call 1-888-536-8880.


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