'GETTING THE BEST OF IT'
With handicapping legend Tony Salinas
IT'S NOT THE DOG IN THE FIGHT,
IT'S THE LACK OF FIGHT IN THE DOG!
As a general rule I look to take UNDERDOGS when betting in Las Vegas. The public likes betting favorites. Oddsmakers stack the line against public money. You're GETTING THE BEST OF IT over the long haul by emphasizing underdogs because of the free points you get in football and basketball, and the free money you get on the baseball moneylines.
But, as I've made clear over the years, I want to invest in either MOTIVATED underdogs or fade distracted favorites. We're at a point in the season where it's clear some baseball teams aren't motivated at all to get the job done. In the coming days and weeks, some other teams are going to join that list.
Let me start with the Houston Astros. From July 1st to July 15th, the Astros went 1-10. If you go back further, that finished off runs of 2-15, 3-18, 6-25, and 7-29. Obviously this isn't a team with an 'us against the world' mentality. This isn't a team who's tired of hearing they have 'no chance' and they want to rise to the occasion and shut somebody up. This is a BAD team that has given up hope on their season.
Now, Houston may start playing better in the coming days. Maybe they'll make some personnel changes and the new guys will CARE. Maybe they'll make a managerial change. Maybe they will reach a point where their sick and tired of being a laughingstock, and they'll put together some good performances. If I see that I'll take a flyer or two on them. If I don't, there's just no way Houston is going to get on my list of underdog bets no matter what the Vegas lines are.
Florida is an example of a team who threw in the towel for awhile, but then started playing better after a managerial change. Florida had an eight-game losing streak, won once, then had a 11-game losing streak (great for my 'streak theory' of betting baseball!), won again, then dropped four of the next five. That's 3-23 over 26 games! Hoping they offered value as a high priced dog would have been throwing your money away during that spell. But, thanks to some wins over other bad teams under the new manager…Florida is at least trying again and has won 11 of 15 games.
There's a lot of depth in the sport right now. So, if you stop trying, you lose to EVERYBODY! Here are some teams I'll be watching closely in the second half of the season to see if they lose their spirit. Most of these teams WON'T do that and will offer dog value. But, I think we're likely to see at least one or two major collapses from:
Florida (for a second time given the lack of talent)
Pittsburgh (can they play well for 162 games?)
Seattle (due to fall)
You never know. Somebody I left out could also turn into a chemistry class explosion if there's a poison in the clubhouse or everyone's sick of the manager. Detroit has a manager that can get on a team's nerves. Be on the lookout for collapses wherever they may come from. Fade the problem teams on the way down when the prices are affordable. Don't even think about betting them as 'value dogs' until they show signs of life again after personnel or managerial changes.
There's a lot of talk this week about the NFL Lockout coming to an end. That huge sigh of relief you just heard came from Vegas sportsbooks! They desperately need the public to come in and bet big this season. Losing pro football would have been a disaster. Well, in this case, good news for sportsbooks is also good news for US. Heavy public action creates bad betting lines, and you and I will be there to take advantage.
Of course, we'll take even MORE advantage if we have a bigger bankroll built by baseball. You owe it to yourself to be betting my baseball through July and August so you can really attack the books in September once the college and pro football regular seasons get here. Purchase the exact same games I'm betting the biggest myself right here at the website with your credit card. You can do that daily or for the season.
If you have any questions about my service, or about pursuing a HIGH ROLLER lifestyle, call my office at 1-888-536-8880.
The stage is now set for a big money-making run through the rest of 2011. Make sure you're GETTING THE BEST OF IT with TONY SALINAS!
'GETTING THE BEST OF IT' is an ongoing series presented by VegasSportsMasters.com and legendary high roller TONY SALINAS. For more information on TONY'S handicapping packages, call 1-888-536-8880.
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