Pitching Histories

With handicapping legend Tony Salinas


For years and years I paid a lot of attention to individual pitching histories against certain teams. One of the most successful runs was Roy Oswalt against Cincinnati when he was with Houston. But, there were several other dominating performances from good pitchers against teams they overmatched. This was true 30 years ago. It's true today.

I think the steroid era may have discouraged some handicappers from using this approach. For awhile there, pitchers suddenly had troubles getting the power teams out. In a sense, EVERYONE struggled against the teams that had accumulated the most power...and anyone who knew what they were doing could beat the poor teams who couldn't afford to stockpile cheaters!

Now that the game is clean again, that's changed. We see a variety of offensive styles across the majors right now, as different managers prefer to emphasize different things. We're also seeing a lot of new young pitchers who never went through a stage where they "convinced" experts they couldn't pitch. I'm afraid a lot of young guys with promise came up at exactly the wrong time to have a pitching career in the majors several years back. The porridge is just right currently for youngsters with velocity, movement, and promise.

As a result, we're starting to see some very interesting pitcher/opponent dynamics taking shape once again. I've been profiting from this already this year and last. I'm really looking forward to the rest of the 2011 season because heavy inter-divisional play gives you A LOT of samples to look at. Say, if somebody on Baltimore "owns" Toronto, he's going to get a few more chances to face them. If Toronto owns a pitcher on Tampa Bay or the Yankees, they're going to have a few more big outings.

There are 30 teams, and six divisions. And, it's only mid-June! I'm going to make a lot of money for my clients between now and October just with pitching histories alone.

Also, Interleague play resumes this weekend. The rivalry series have some nice histories to them as well, with multiple recent samples now that the steroid era is over. Does somebody on Oakland "own" San Francisco? They play every year, and will play again this weekend. What about Baltimore and Washington? Same deal. Florida/Tampa Bay, and Kansas City/ St. Louis also resume their regional rivalries Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. Be sure you look at pitching histories over the past few seasons in those matchups.

I'm not going to talk about my personal strategies with specific pitchers or teams here in the web article. I owe it to my clients to keep that information protected. I will mention a few quick general themes:

  • It's easier for strikeout pitchers to own a team than non-strikeout pitchers because it's tough to make contact against high velocity guys no matter how often you see them.
  • It's easier for lefthanders to have success the first one or two times they see an opposing offense than it is later on. The more a team sees a southpaw's motion, the more likely they are to figure him out.
  • It's easier for savvy veterans to have success against young undisciplined teams. One reason Jamie Moyer lasted so long is that he could abuse hitters who swung at bad pitches. If you watch a lot of games on TV (like I do here at the Vegas sportsbooks on the big screens), try to get a read on how smart various pitchers are. What looks like a pitcher "owning" a team is often a veteran outsmarting them time and time again.
  • It's easier for home run offenses to dominate against fly ball pitchers. Do you know who the fly ball pitchers are?
  • It's easier for patient offenses to dominate against starters who have inconsistent control. They'll wait him out and draw walks. The starter will use up his pitch count early, and probably allow a few runs (or more) in the five innings (or less) that he's on the mound.

There are some stat guys who will tell you won-lost records against individual teams are so random that they don't matter. If stat guys had to bet their own opinions they wouldn't talk so much! There are reasons certain pitchers own certain teams. There are reasons why those same pitchers struggle against other offenses. I've known that since I moved to Vegas many years ago. I've been taking advantage of it ever since.

You can take advantage of MY baseball knowledge by signing up for my personal service. Game day baseball releases go up a few hours before first pitch. I've got great rates for my seasonal package. And, if you act now, you can also enjoy summer rates for the coming football season. It's never too early to start thinking about football!

My office number is 1-888-536-8880 if you have any questions.

Baseball is easy to beat if you know what you're doing. Start GETTING THE BEST OF IT with TONY SALINAS!


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