Fading the Public

With handicapping legend Tony Salinas


I've been telling you for years that you should fade the public in big sporting events. The value of that strategy was as obvious as it could be in the first round of the NBA playoffs this year.

  • CHICAGO was the #1 seed in the East, and featured the consensus Most Valuable Player amongst those "in the know" in point guard Derrick Rose. The public decided the Bulls were the hot team of the year, and get accordingly. Chicago didn't cover a spread until Game Five vs. Indiana!
  • MIAMI supposedly bought a championship when they brought in LeBron James and Chris Bosh to join Dwyane Wade. Some crowned this team best of all time even before the season started. In the first round of their playoff debut, the Heat were just 2-3 ATS...and struggled down the stretch in every game but one.
  • ORLANDO has Dwight Howard, who was getting any support for MVP that Derrick Rose wasn't getting. This is a team that's done well in the playoffs the past few seasons. Many had them as a darkhorse this year because Howard is such a force. The public assumed a first round meeting with Atlanta would be a cakewalk. It was. For Atlanta! Orlando didn't cover a spread until Game Five, and finished 1-5 ATS vs. the Hawks.
  • SAN ANTONIO was the top seed in the West. The public still loves the Lakers more than the Spurs, but they assumed San Antonio wouldn't have any trouble taking care of Memphis in the first round. Now San Antonio is sitting at home watching the rest of the playoffs along with the public. San Antonio didn't cover a spread in regulation in six tries! They did win an overtime game by seven in a game that was -6.5 in some places and -7 in others. They needed overtime to get at most one push in the series. Unbelievable.

Now, the Lakers? They started slowly (going 1-3 ATS in the first four games), but did rally 3-3 ATS for the series. That loses some pocket change either way because of the vigorish (being the public, or fading the public). But, no harm no foul in the big picture.

It can be tricky determining who the public will be most passionate about the later you get in the playoffs because you're talking about top quality teams who have constituencies. Here's my take on who the public will be favoring in the second round.

  • The public will bet CHICAGO over Atlanta because Chicago is still the #1 seed led by a marquee young player...and Atlanta is still seen as a pretender who happened to draw a favorable first round matchup. Older squares bet Chicago back in the Michael Jordan era. They're excited to get the chance to do so once again. Nobody ever bet Atlanta, even when Dominique Wilkins was playing there.
  • The public will bet MIAMI over Boston because of LeBron James and Dwyane Wade. They did that during the regular season even though the Heat didn't beat the Celtics until their last try. They still believe that superstars win championships, and they don't care what the spread is.
  • The public will bet OKLAHOMA CITY over Memphis because Memphis is a #8 seed. Nobody wants to bet on the worst seed! People will "root" for underdogs if they're just watching a game on TV. If they're betting money, they want to invest in the better team. That's Oklahoma City, a team that's getting a lot of media run lately because Kevin Durant is playing so well. If Durant played in New York he'd already be LeBron James in terms of media hype.
  • The public will bet the LA LAKERS over Dallas because the public loves betting on defending champions, and because they love betting on Kobe Bryant. Plus, the best player on Dallas is Dirk Nowitzki, and the public usually doesn't load up on foreign players the same way they do homegrown stars.

No surprise, those are the series favorites! That will just magnify the passions because the teams that the public wants to bet on anyway are supposed to win. They can take the league MVP, the decade's MVP, an up-and-coming superstar, and one of the all-time great's playing for a legendary franchise...and not have any qualms about hoping the worse team plays over their heads. They're just asking the greats to play great.

Well, if that was a winning strategy, Las Vegas couldn't exist! The lines will be stacked against the public teams once again. I may not fade the public in each and every game. I'll be looking at the personnel matchups. I'll be looking at the intangibles. I'll be looking at the TONY SALINAS ZIG ZAG THEORY for guidance as well. But, I can tell you that...over the course of the full second round...the public will be taking the worst of it while TONY SALINAS AND HIS CLIENTS GET THE BEST OF IT!

You can always purchase the exact same games I'm betting the biggest myself here at the website with your credit card. Game day selections go up a few hours before first tip in the baskets and first pitch in the bases. My baseball is off to a great start thanks to my use of umpire tendencies, weather information, and streak dynamics. If you'd like to work out a combination package, call my office at 1-888-536-8880.

I've been a HIGH ROLLER in Las Vegas for decades because I know how to take advantage of lines that have been warped by public sentiment. Stop making the same mistakes everyone else makes. Start GETTING THE BEST OF IT with TONY SALINAS!


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