Big Dance Tips

With handicapping legend Tony Salinas


I've been handicapping the NCAA Tournament for decades. You've read about John Wooden? I was betting on or against his UCLA Bruins during their historic run!

March Madness has always been one of my favorite sports betting events. The public comes out of the woodwork to bet these games. Vegas sportsbooks are full of tourists in team shirts or sweatshirts who make the trip out here to spend Spring Break at the best party in the country. And, those bettors invariably pick the WRONG teams, which drives the lines in the WRONG me free points all over the board.

Now, it's true that the down economy has reduced the impact of this to a degree. But, what's been happening in recent years is that many in the public lay off the regular season because of the economy, then bring all that pent up betting energy to town for the tourney! I can assure you there will be bad lines on the board this week and next. The oddsmakers will make a few mistakes. The public will make even more. TONY SALINAS and his clients will be there to take advantage.

Here are some time proven tips for handicapping the Big Dance.

  • FADE THE PUBLIC! They're still wrong a lot more than they're right. They still spend too much time listening to TV pundits. They still trust the newspaper rankings too much. They still give too much credit to the seeding committee. You're going to GET THE BEST OF IT by betting against any public bandwagon that gets rolling.
  • BET OVERS WITH FRESH LEGS! Players usually bring a lot of energy to their first game. They haven't played at least since the weekend. For some teams, it's been more than a week. They scamper all over the place the first time they take the floor, driving many games Over their Vegas totals. This is an even better edge in night games when the crowds are bigger. The only time I'm careful with this strategy are with teams who are extremely defensive-minded. They use those fresh legs on defense rather than offense.
  • BET UNDERS WITH TIRED LEGS! The second time teams take the floor, they've calmed back down again. It's their second game in three days, so their legs start to get tired too. Three-point shots start to hit the rim. Tempos slow down. You generally want to look at Unders when teams are playing that second game in a short sequence.
  • FADE CONFERENCE TOURNEY CHAMPIONS! Any team who cut down the nets in their championship tournament is likely to be a bit flat emotionally in the Dance. And, they're likely to be overrated by the public who just watched them play great on TV a few days ago. If you're looking for the best underdog options in the first round, you'll want to go against teams coming off huge weekends. Now, if they do play flat but survive their first round, it's okay to zig-zag back on these teams in Round Two. Top teams don't often play two bad games in a row.
  • FADE BUBBLE SURVIVORS! Teams who barely snuck into the NCAA Tournament often spend so much time celebrating their good fortune that they forget to prepare for their first game! Maybe they had a big weekend and earned a spot at the last second. It's never smart to ask a team to climb a mountain for you just after they climbed a mountain. Maybe they were a true coin flip to get an invitation, and the campus went nuts after the announcement. That just gives you a mediocre team who wasn't good enough to get into the Dance cleanly...who ALSO spent too much time celebrating. Give me a team with a chip on their shoulder, not one with a hangover.

I mapped out my battle plan as soon as the brackets were announced Sunday afternoon. Opening lines went up soon afterward. I can tell you right now I'll have major releases every single day this week starting Tuesday in the NCAA Tournament. And, I'll be building my bankroll for the big weekend schedule with plays in the NIT, CBI, and College Insider Tournament before then. You can sign up for my HIGH ROLLER service online. Clients get the exact same games I'm betting the biggest myself. Game day releases go up a few hours before the first tip (remember there are day games Thursday and Friday). Full season rates are affordably priced and offer the most value.

The public will be arriving shortly in Las Vegas for the greatest betting week in all of sports. As always, they will be taking the worst of it. Sign up with TONY SALINAS to make sure you're GETTING THE BEST OF IT!

"GETTING THE BEST OF IT" is an ongoing series presented by and legendary high roller TONY SALINAS. For more information on TONY'S handicapping packages, call 1-888-536-8880.


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