Public Missing The Obvious
'GETTING THE BEST OF IT'
With handicapping legend Tony Salinas
PUBLIC TEAMS STRUGGLE TO BEAT
NBA POINTSPREAD EXPECTATIONS
Out here in Las Vegas, the public loves betting on the Los Angeles Lakers. They all think Kobe Bryant is the best player in the league by a mile. They all think the Lakers are going to win the championship ever season. If the Lakers are coming off a loss, they assume the team will bounce right back with a big victory.
The loss to Sacramento? Didn't matter. The Lakers were looking ahead to Boston.
The loss to Boston? Didn't matter. Just wait until the playoffs.
The loss to San Antonio? Hey, who won the rings the last few years, us or San Antonio?
That's great. If you want to wait until the playoffs to bet, you might make some money on the Lakers. But, what is the point of betting on them NOW when they're not playing their best basketball?
The Lakers are 22-28-1 so far this season against the spread, exactly 44% versus the number. You can lose a lot of money at 44%! That's why the public goes broke. They bet more than they should on their favorite teams, then they hit a percentage that erases their bankrolls.
Don't forget about the vigorish with a record like that. A 22-28-1 record is the equivalent of 22-31 give or take a few cents. That's minus nine bets. Since the public bets more than they can afford, minus nine bets will tap them out. Well, given how dumb bettors like to double up to catch up. I've seen minus five bets break many a gambler. They drop a few games, do a bridge-jumping bet, and get all wet.
Another big name team was exactly 22-28-1 against the spread through Saturday Night's action. That was the Orlando Magic. They became a popular choice to threaten in the East after a recent trade. Inconsistent play has followed though. And, inconsistent play just grinds up gamblers who think any win as a sign that the team has turned the corner.
The Boston Celtics are the best team in the East so far this year. Have Boston backers made any money? No, even with the best straight up record in the East, Boston is just 23-24-2 vs. the Vegas lines. That's the equivalent of 23-26.4 with the vigorish. Minus three bets. Beantown fans are bragging about their team, but they're eating at Taco Bell because that's all they can afford because of their last bets.
What about the Miami Heat? Vegas is Kobe country, so the love for LeBron James that you see in the national media isn't as present here. But, the main public mindset is to try and bet on the best teams and best players and hope they'll play great for you. Miami's had trouble covering spreads as a result. The Heat are 25-24-1 versus the spread, which is a losing record after you factor in the vigorish (25-26.4).
You'd think after losing with overpriced teams day in and day out, week in and week out, and year in and year out, that the public would see the obvious. They don't. They talk themselves into losing strategies, and ride them straight to the poorhouse.
I group up in Texas, where we liked to keep things simple. Bet on value. Don't give value to the bookmaker. Take free points when they're offered. Don't give away free points. Only bet on the top teams if they're covering spreads. This is rare, but it DOES happen. Sometimes oddsmakers are a step or two slow. Sometimes the media and public are so focused on a few teams that they miss an OBVIOUS great team that's covering time after time. Sometimes, something as simple as BETTING ON THE SAN ANTONIO SPURS will yield a 30-18 ATS record over a long stretch...for a 63% success rate!
Yes, the team nobody wants to watch because they're too boring...the team that doesn't have a Kobe or a LeBron, just a group of guys who know how to play together and win...is tearing up the line. I guess it took a Texan to notice what a Texas team was doing!
Talk about missing the obvious. The world wants to bet on the Lakers, Celtics, Heat, and Magic...while San Antonio is sitting there right under their noses.
As you handicap pro and college basketball this week, through the month of February, through March Madness, and the NBA playoffs; make sure you're not missing the obvious! Fade the public. Look for teams the public hasn't noticed who are playing well and covering spreads (there are probably a dozen teams like this in the colleges right now). Winning really is easy when you keep it simple.
If you've been taking the worst of it on your own, start GETTING THE BEST OF IT WITH TONY SALINAS! You can sign up for the rest of the season at a very affordable rate. Or, you can try things out on a game-by-game basis. Selections always go up a few hours before the first games tip off. If you have any questions, call the office at1-888-536-8880.
See you again next Monday...
'GETTING THE BEST OF IT' is an ongoing series presented by VegasSportsMasters.com and legendary high roller TONY SALINAS. For more information on TONY'S handicapping packages, call 1-888-536-8880.
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