Updating Public NFL Teams
"GETTING THE BEST OF IT"
With handicapping legend Tony Salinas
PUBLIC CHOICES ALREADY OUT OF THE PLAYOFFS
Last weekend, I talked about the importance of trying to fade the public when handicapping big TV games. I then made a list from 1-12 in terms of how I perceived public sentiment for betting on postseason teams.
- The team nobody wanted to touch with a 10-foot poll, Seattle, beat the team EVERYONE wanted to bet on, New Orleans, OUTRIGHT. The public can no longer bet on the defending Super Bowl champs! That was #12 on the list beating #3 on the list. Talk about GETTING THE BEST OF IT! You should have seen the looks of amazement on sports bettors here in Las Vegas as that game unfolded. They couldn't believe their eyes. It wouldn't have occurred to them in a million years that Seattle might win that game.
- The AFC team in action last weekend that the public loved most was Indianapolis. Peyton Manning always gets support from bettors, especially when he's a cheap favorite. They lost too! The two Super Bowl teams from last year are out of the mix already. You couldn't blame Manning because his team had so many injuries. The public didn't care about the injuries though. They bet Manning come Hell or high water. Guess who took a bath.
- A man getting an amazing amount of run in MVP conversations, and therefore getting betting support as a cheap home favorite, quarterback Michael Vick of Philadelphia, was also eliminated in Week One. All of those dramatic storylines for the TV networks out the window in a matter of hours! Everyone had marveled at Vick's Monday Night TV performance at Washington earlier in the season. They were hoping for a replay.
The only game the public was right about was Baltimore over Kansas City. The Chiefs were exposed as a pretender. The public went with the better known playoff team and won.
Here's my new list of eight teams ranked from top to bottom in terms of public enthusiasm. We have four teams taking the field for the first time, and the four winners from last week.
4...New York Jets
Seattle was 12th last week, but moves up to 8th because there are only eight teams left. It's still a squad nobody wants to touch with a 10-foot pole. I heard a lot of people talking about the "due theory," meaning Seattle is due to lose after playing two good games in a row. For the moment, that's made Chicago a public team at #6 by default, since they're playing the #8 team that nobody wants to bet.
Green Bay is now the hot team in the NFC everyone wants to support. Sportsbooks have had to defend against that, making Atlanta the cheapest top seed ever against the number.
New England and Pittsburgh keep their places at the top because they've gone to more recent Super Bowls than anyone else on the list. The Jets and Baltimore are certainly respected underdogs. In the playoffs, the public has historically preferred favorites with a history to respected dogs. Has that made the line too high in those AFC games?
You regulars know I can't release my official selections here in my web articles. Maybe I'll be on all four underdogs. Maybe I'll be fading the most public teams, which would switch me over to Atlanta as a cheap favorite rather than Green Bay. Or, maybe the master of handicapping the WEATHER is ready to unleash a big surprise in one of the three cold weather matchups!
All I'll say here is that each and every one of you should make plans to spend this weekend with TONY SALINAS so you can get the best of it on the sides and totals in the playoff games you'll be watching Saturday and Sunday. I've got a great package that takes you through the Super Bowl at a very affordable price. Or, you can go day-by-day with your credit card if you prefer that route. Don't forget that we have a bunch of basketball on the card too. If you'd like to create a two-sport combo, call the office at 1-888-536-8880.
We had a great run through the bowls. Now I'm going to show you how a HIGH ROLLER plays the playoffs. Make sure you're GETTING THE BEST OF IT with TONY SALINAS!
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